Progressive Breakfast

Progressive Breakfast: Fed Audit Clears Committee

Bill Scher — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 07:07:56 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day.

Paul-Grayson Fed Audit Plan Clears Committee

NYT on House committee vote repudiating Fed: "Mr. Paul, a libertarian Republican who has called for abolishing the Fed entirely, has introduced a version of his bill in every session of Congress since the early 1980s and never made any progress. But the Fed’s trillion-dollar efforts to bail out major banks and rescue the financial system provoked a popular firestorm that ignited both right-wing Republicans and left-wing Democrats. Mr. Paul’s amendment would instruct the Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress, to carry out audits of all the Fed’s operations. Those include an array of emergency lending programs, bailouts of giant financial institutions, dealings with foreign central banks and the central bank’s efforts to drive down interest rates by intervening in bond markets. Mr. Frank had already agreed that the G.A.O. should be authorized to audit all of the Fed’s rescue programs, but he had wanted to wall off the Fed’s more basic job of setting interest rates to steer the economy."

Vote on overall financial reform package stalled by Black Caucus members demanding more action on economy. The Hill: "Frank delayed the panel’s final vote after Congressional Black Caucus members said they would withhold their votes. 'It has nothing to do with the underlying bill,' said Steve Adamske, Frank’s spokesman. 'It has to do with larger economic issues with the African American community.'"

W. Post adds: "Congressional aides said the [CBC's] concerns are similar to those of the Democratic Party's liberal wing. Caucus members are pushing for legislation that would directly lead to new jobs by providing tax benefits, for example, that would provide incentives for home renovations and funding for new infrastructure projects. They also want to extend health-care and unemployment benefits."

Shelby rips Dodd financial reform bill. CQ: "Shelby and other Republican panel members said Dodd’s bill would preserve through law the practice of rescuing companies deemed 'too big to fail,' rather than end it ... Taking into consideration the Republican concerns, Dodd offered to give his panel members more time to fashion a bipartisan bill. He told his colleagues that they should be prepared to work 'virtually around the clock' into next week to iron out problem areas, but that he would not set a deadline on when to proceed with the bill."

Geithner tells Congress of plans to use leftover TARP funds for deficit reduction, while facing calls to resign. AP: "'We are winding it down and will close it as soon as we can,' Mr. Geithner said of the $700 billion bailout fund ... Mr. Geithner said 'substantial resources' remaining in the fund would be used to pay down the national debt ... While pledging to end TARP as quickly as possible, Mr. Geithner also said the administration did not want to repeat the mistake of other countries by ending government support too fast and derailing a fledgling economic recovery. But Representative Kevin Brady, a Republican from Texas, said the economy was such a mess that Mr. Geithner, as the Obama administration’s chief economic spokesman, should resign immediately."

Pelosi pushes international tax of financial transactions. Reuters: "Any tax imposed on financial transactions would have to take effect internationally to keep Wall Street jobs and related business from moving overseas, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said ... support is tepid among key legislators, especially those from the New York region who worry that finance jobs could disappear if the tax drives trading activity overseas."

White House stimulus watchdog notes imperfect local reporting will both understate and overstate job creation. NYT: "The 640,000 figure, announced by the White House with some fanfare last month, came from reports filed by recipients of the stimulus money, many of which have been shown to be inaccurate or overstated since they were made public. But the watchdog, Earl E. Devaney ... said that it was also possible that the figure understated how many jobs were affected. Up to 10 percent of the recipients had not filed the required reports showing how many jobs they had created or saved, he said." ALSO: White House blog posts "reality check."

President renews prospects of Korea trade deal. NYT: "Mr. Obama and the president of South Korea, Lee Myung-bak, both declared their desire to renegotiate elements of the agreement and to have both countries ratify it as soon as possible ... Democrats from big manufacturing states were already accusing the president of emulating his Republican predecessor and undermining American workers ... [Rep. Sander] Levin has warned the trade deal had no chance of passage unless South Korea agreed to make reductions in import restrictions. But he welcomed Mr. Lee’s apparent willingness to re-open those discussions."

Senate Hopeful To Clear First Procedural Hurdle Tomorrow

Senate expected to have 60 votes to begin health care debate Saturday. NYT: "After getting a look at the contents of the $848 billion legislative package unveiled by Mr. Reid on Wednesday, Democrats were increasingly confident they would be successful on the first crucial vote. That confidence was in part due to Mr. Reid’s shaping elements of his bill to appeal to Ms. Landrieu as well as to two other Democratic holdouts, Senators Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Ben Nelson of Nebraska."

Sen. Olympia Snowe looking to weaken employer mandate, public option. W. Post: "...Snowe said she is not happy with Reid's package, and has informed him that he will not have her vote Saturday. But Snowe said she would seek to amend the measure to lighten the financial burden it would place on small businesses whose workers received federal subsidies to buy insurance. She is also pressing for a trigger approach to the public option that would make it available only in states where private firms did not develop broadly affordable policies."

Union leaders remain opposed to tax on expansive insurance plans. LA Times: "...the Senate bill also includes the 40% excise tax on companies that offer high-end insurance plans -- those that cost $8,500 in annual premiums for individuals and $23,000 for families. Proponents argue that would not just raise revenues but also curb costs by discouraging companies from offering expensive plans ... critics warned it would not hit just luxury plans, but also those for middle-class workers whose premium costs are high because they live in high-cost states. A recent study by the Commonwealth Fund projected that the average premium for family coverage in 2015 would be nearly $20,000 in high-cost states. To address those concerns, the Senate bill sets the threshold $3,000 above that for certain states and for plans that cover workers in high-risk professions. Richard Trumka, president of the AFL-CIO, said that was a step in the right direction, but that labor would seek to kill the provision. 'We continue to believe that a tax on working families' benefits is the wrong way to finance healthcare,' he said."

White House squarely in support of insurance tax. WH budget director pens W. Post op-ed: "...will do more than help pay for reform. It also will curtail the growth of private health insurance premiums..."

CBPP largely praises Senate bill. TPMDC: "'The new Senate health bill marks a major step toward comprehensive, fiscally responsible health reform,' said executive director Robert Greenstein. 'It would extend health insurance coverage to 31 million Americans who lack it, reduce the budget deficit, and put long-term downward pressure on health care costs.'" CBPP had been particularly critical of the 'free-rider' employer mandate provision in the Finance bill, which Reid has rectified. Greenstein says the main problem with the bill now is its affordability (or lack thereof) for working-class Americans."

Some business groups oppose, but conflicted on strategy. WSJ: "Several industry groups are banding together to ask Congress to scrap the current bills and start from scratch on a health overhaul. They are stepping up television advertising against Democrats' proposals. The problem for employers is they may lack the power to kill the bill, which is why some are hedging their bets by negotiating on provisions they think they still have a chance of changing ...

Catholic bishops group lambastes Senate bill abortion language: "At the White House on Thursday, health reform director Nancy Ann DeParle praised Reid's effort to find a compromise on abortion ... But Richard Doerflinger, associate director of the bishops' conference Secretariat of Pro-Life Activities, said Reid's 'is actually the worst bill we've seen so far on the life issues.'"

House conservatives flip-flop on fixing Medicare reimbursements to doctors, as bill passes. The Treatment's Suzy Khimm: "The majority of House Republicans opposed the Democrats’ $210 billion physician payment bill--which passed this afternoon on a 243-183 vote--accusing the legislation of increasing the deficit by relying on federal borrowing through Medicare to pay for itself. ... But it was only four months ago that Ways and Means Republicans voted for an amendment that’s nearly identical to the bill being proposed today..."

Pre-Copenhagen International Jockeying Begins

Nations begin laying down markers on emission cuts in advance of Copenhagen. NYT: "...a rapid-fire succession of countries are unveiling national plans that serve as opening bids for reining in heat-trapping emissions ... 'We now have offers of targets from all industrialized countries except the United States,' [UN climate chief Yvo] de Boer said ... [US climate negotiator Todd Stern] noted that bills pending in Congress involved cuts of around 17 percent in emissions by 2020, increasing to much deeper cuts by 2030 ... South Korea said it would cut emissions by 30 percent from 'business as usual' by 2020. Russia’s president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, said his country would try to reduce emissions by 25 percent by then, instead of 15 percent as announced earlier. Last week, Brazil promised reductions of about 40 percent below current projections by 2020. The recent announcements are a mix of aspirations, good intentions and negotiating tactics. In most cases there is no certainty that the targets are politically or scientifically plausible."

Politico assesses Sen. John McCain's flip-flop from climate bill proponent to opponent: "Now the Arizona Republican is more likely to repeat GOP talking points on cap and trade than to help usher the bill through the thorny politics of the Senate. ... Former aides are mystified by what they see as a retreat on the issue, given McCain’s long history of leadership on climate legislation."

Progressive Breakfast: Obama in China

Bill Scher — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 06:45:57 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day

Currency, Trade, Climate Focus of China Trip

Time previews this week's US-China prez talks: "...the subject of 'rebalancing' will likely get top billing ... China's top leaders clearly agree with Washington that the country's consumers need to spend more. Pressure from Obama to speed that process along by, for example, continued improvements in China's social safety net, might be met with nods of approval. But Obama will only be able to press Beijing so hard. China's policymakers are still wedded to supporting the country's valuable export industries. Any suggestions from Obama that would result in a drastic shift of the economy away from exports and towards heavier reliance on domestic spending will be less welcome [and] economists doubt China's leaders will take drastic steps to reform its currency system anytime soon.

Newsweek tries to explain thinking of Chinese leadership: "Within Chinese government circles, explains [Brookings' David] Shambaugh, there is an escalating debate over whether the country should assume the role of a 'responsible big power' or just continue practicing the late Chinese strongman Deng Xiaoping's more veiled and ambiguous strategy of 'biding time, hiding capabilities, but doing some things.' Skeptics in the Beijing leadership believe China simply isn't ready to take on much greater global responsibilities—and yet 'some people want Beijing to overextend itself precisely so that Chinese growth will be stifled,' says Professor Yan [Xuetong]."

Obama touches on trade in China town hall: "...just look at how far we have come. In 1979, trade between the United States and China stood at roughly $5 billion -- today it tops over $400 billion each year. The commerce affects our people's lives in so many ways. America imports from China many of the computer parts we use, the clothes we wear; and we export to China machinery that helps power your industry. This trade could create even more jobs on both sides of the Pacific, while allowing our people to enjoy a better quality of life. And as demand becomes more balanced, it can lead to even broader prosperity."

Krugman deeply worried about trade imbalance: "...let’s hope that when the cameras aren’t rolling Mr. Obama and his hosts engage in some frank talk about currency policy ... Last week’s U.S. trade report showed a sharp increase in the trade deficit between August and September. And there will be many more reports along those lines. So picture this: month after month of headlines juxtaposing soaring U.S. trade deficits and Chinese trade surpluses with the suffering of unemployed American workers. If I were the Chinese government, I’d be really worried about that prospect ... [Yet] they’ve taken to lecturing the United States, telling us to raise interest rates and curb fiscal deficits — that is, to make our unemployment problem even worse."

Momentum For Intermediary Climate Agreement

American and Asian leaders formally agree to pursue intermediary climate agreement next month. W. Post: "...leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit endorsed the proposal by Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen for a limited, short-term climate agreement that would be finalized as a legally binding treaty in 2010. The new approach -- 'one agreement, two steps,' as Rasmussen called it -- would have all 192 countries participating in the talks sign an agreement on major parts of the negotiation, including mitigation, adaptation, technology and finance."

LA Times suggests new international strategy could improve prospects for US climate bill: "Scaled-back action in Copenhagen could help push a Senate bill over the top by securing pledges for emissions reductions from China and India, and thereby reassuring moderate Rust Belt Democrats ... It's still possible that negotiators might not agree on even a scaled-back declaration in Copenhagen -- and that could set treaty talks back considerably."

Climate Progress enthuses: "Now it will be obvious when the Senate takes up the bill up in the winter that the rest of the world is prepared to act — that every major country in the world has come to the table with serious targets and/or serious commitments to change their greenhouse gas emissions trajectories."

Politico reports tripartisan deal expected before Copenhagen: "Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) plan to release a framework for bipartisan legislation before the talks to send a signal that the United States is committed to taking action. But few senators expect Reid to actually put the bill on the Senate calendar."

Head of UN climate science plan lambastes delay. NYT quotes: "It signifies an abandonment of moral responsibility that a position of leadership on the world stage clearly implies."

Waiting on CBO

Bloomberg previews Senate floor debate: "...Reid has delayed unveiling his legislation while waiting for Congressional Budget Office cost estimates on various proposals ... 'Once we hear from CBO, we will take the legislation to the caucus and hope to start floor debate as soon as possible,' said Jim Manley, Reid’s spokesman ... Reid first must corral 60 votes to start debate. Later, he might do a test vote on the proposal with a public option before accepting [Sen. Olympia] Snowe’s plan to create a government program only if premiums aren’t affordable enough, [former Sen. John] Breaux said."

Chamber of Commerce looking to pay for "study" attacking health care reform. W. Post uncovers: "The e-mail, written by the Chamber's senior health policy manager and obtained by The Washington Post, proposes spending $50,000 to hire a 'respected economist' to study the impact of health-care legislation, which is expected to come to the Senate floor this week, would have on jobs and the economy. Step two, according to the e-mail, appears to assume the outcome of the economic review..."

Drugmakers jacking up prices in advance of legislation. NYT: "Even as drug makers promise to support Washington’s health care overhaul by shaving $8 billion a year off the nation’s drug costs after the legislation takes effect, the industry has been raising its prices at the fastest rate in years. In the last year, the industry has raised the wholesale prices of brand-name prescription drugs by about 9 percent, according to industry analysts. That will add more than $10 billion to the nation’s drug bill..."

Major pushback on interpretation of Center for Medicare and Medicaid report on House bill. Politico on WH response: "Nancy-Ann DeParle, director of the White House Office of Health Reform, pushed back Sunday on the CMS report that concluded Medicare beneficiaries could lose access to health care providers under the House bill ... 'It is an interesting analysis but it is pretty speculative though of what the impact will be on providers and beneficiaries. Our recent experience would indicate something quite different.'" Kevin Drum: "What CMS is saying is that the healthcare sector tends to be labor intensive, and thus won't be able to improve its efficiency as rapidly as the broader economy. Which might be true. Still, it's worth noting that this is basically a counsel of despair. It suggests that controlling the growth of healthcare spending is hopeless, and any attempt to try it won't work. ... I don't buy that ... we're going to have to control healthcare spending one way or another, and the sooner we give it a serious try the better." Walker Report: "CMS concludes that the public option would provide better quality health insurance at a better value." Wonk Room: "If the CMS analysis suggests that reform legislation should adopt robust cost-containment provisions, it also applauds the bill for expanding coverage by building and strengthening the current public/private system. The report is a wake-up call for reformers as much as it is a full and complete rejection of critics who argue that the House bill will undermine the existing health care system."

Financial Reform Fights Brew

Politico reviews points of conflict with Dodd financial reform bill: "Dodd has immediately picked a fight with his House counterpart, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), by proposing to strip the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. of its supervisory powers and give those powers to a new banking super-regulator ... [Bankers] continue to fight over who pays into a 'too big to fail' fund ... Community banks want the big banks to prepay into this emergency fund. The big banks prefer the approach taken by Dodd’s bill: the FDIC collecting money from big firms after the crisis has passed."

House working on too-big-to-fail reform. The Hill: "The House Financial Services Committee next week is set to debate the highly contentious issue of whether the government should have the power to break up large financial firms even if they’re not about to fail. Lobbyists for big banks are anxious about language still being drafted by Reps. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.) and Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.) that would give new powers to the government to break up big firms and separate their different types of commercial and investment banking business.

HuffPost's Art Levine previews today's Goldman Sachs protest: "EIU President Andy Stern is joining hundreds of progressives -- and potentially more -- in a newly organized protest outside the Washington, D.C. offices of Goldman Sachs on Monday at noon. SEIU is part of a co-sponsoring coalition, Americans For Financial Reform, that also includes other unions, such as the AFL-CIO, and the advocacy groups Public Citizen and National People's Action that are planning the march."

The Hill reports on possible Senate jobs bill: "A bill sponsored by Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) would give unemployment compensation to employees who accept a reduced work schedule to allow their companies to avert layoffs or to hire more employees. Reed's proposal for work-sharing was mentioned during the Senate Democrats' lunch Tuesday, when Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) announced that an initiative focusing on jobs would soon be a priority, Reed's office said ... Reid hasn't tipped his hand on what the coming legislation will include. Labor unions have called for more aid to states to help prevent cutbacks of public employees, loans for small businesses and more investment in infrastructure projects."

GM to start paying back US early reports NYT: "One reason was the 'cash for clunkers' program..."

Progressive Breakfast: Get Some Jobs

Bill Scher — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 06:53:16 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day

Announced Summit Renews Focus On Job Creation

LA Times reports on planned WH jobs summit and Senate jobs bills: "...Obama said he would gather chief executives, small-business owners, economists, labor leaders and others to discuss ways to create jobs and grow the economy. The move comes as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) told colleagues this week that he planned to push a job-creation bill in the coming weeks ... [Sen. Jack] Reed has been pushing legislation to expand work-share programs, which exist in California and 16 other states. The initiatives entice companies to cut workers' hours instead of laying them off ... Sen. Russell D. Feingold (D-Wis.) is drafting a bill to provide a job-creation tax credit, based on a proposal by the think tank Economic Policy Institute. Lawmakers from steel-producing states have pressed for accelerated passage of a new multiyear transportation bill to build highways and other projects."

Krugman says look to Germany for jobs ideas: "Germany came into the Great Recession with strong employment protection legislation. This has been supplemented with a 'short-time work scheme,' which provides subsidies to employers who reduce workers’ hours rather than laying them off. These measures didn’t prevent a nasty recession, but Germany got through the recession with remarkably few job losses."

Open Left promotes funding any jobs bill with TARP money: "[A jobs bill] could range in size from $100 to $200 billion, which is a wide range ... we can play a role in determining how big it becomes. Some members of Congress, including the leadership, are open to using TARP bailout money (still $317 billion of it left) as the primary funding mechanism. This would make the bill a huge political winner, as the bailout is directed away from Wall Street and toward Second Street." Open Left also criticizes plans to reduce deficit with TARP: "Don't repay Chinese bankers with the $210 billion. Give Americans jobs."

L. Randall Wray proposes a "Jobs Guarantee" program in New Deal 2.0: "The federal government would ensure a job offer to anyone ready and willing to work, at the established program compensation level (including wages and a healthy benefits package). To keep it simple, the program wage could be set at the current federal minimum wage ($7.25 an hour), and then adjusted periodically as that is raised ... A permanent and universal JG program should be decentralized, with projects created and administered locally–where the workers are, and for the benefit of their communities ... businesses would be protected from unfair competition because all JG projects would have to demonstrate they’d fulfill unmet public purposes. "

Deficit to be primary focus of Jan. State of the Union address. Politico: "President Barack Obama plans to announce in next year's State of the Union address that he wants to focus extensively on cutting the federal deficit in 2010 – and will downplay other new domestic spending beyond jobs programs..."

What's Reid's Health Care Tax Plan?

Reid's tax plan to finance health care reform still unknown. NYT: "James P. Manley, a spokesman for Mr. Reid, said the majority leader had not decided whether to include the [Medicare] payroll tax increase [on workers with incomes above $250K] in the bill he takes to the Senate floor. Several Democratic senators have urged Mr. Reid to propose extending the Medicare payroll tax to income other than wages, like capital gains, dividends and rental income. Such a change could generate substantial revenue from higher-income households, who tend to derive a greater share of their income from sources other than wages."

WH not backing specific tax plan, but retains optimism for passage. Bloomberg: "White House Budget Director Peter Orszag said he expects President Barack Obama to sign a bill to overhaul the U.S. health-care system this year, as lawmakers consider a new tax on capital gains to help fund it ... Orszag wouldn’t say whether the White House supports that approach. 'We have to see the package as a whole,' he said."

W. Post's David Broder vs. Ezra Klein on whether the House bill reduces long-term spending. (Guess which one actually talks to a health care expert.)

Consumer Watchdog calls out Dem opponents of reform for taking corporate cash: "Dems Who Voted "No" On Health Reform Received $568K From Health Insurers & $377K From Drug Companies In 2009"

Insurers pressing employees to oppose reform. W. Post: "UnitedHealth Group, which is based in Minnesota, sent an e-mail message to its 75,000 employees on Tuesday asking them to write their senators and local newspapers in opposition to a public insurance option, alleging that 'government-run health care' will force 'millions of Americans' to drop their current coverage."

AFL-CIO Prez pledges to renew EFCA fight after health care is passed in WSJ.

Senate Financial Reform Mark-Up Next Week

CQ reports on Dodd's schedule to pass financial reform: "The Senate Banking Committee will begin debate next week on a sweeping overhaul of financial industry regulations, though votes on the plan won’t begin until December. The markup will start Nov. 19, but for opening statements only, according to a committee memo. A revised version of the draft legislation, unveiled Tuesday by Chairman Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., will be released Nov. 16. Dodd set a Nov. 23 deadline for the submission of first-degree amendments, with consideration of those amendments set for Dec. 2."

McClatchy reports former Fed officials differ on Fed's proper reg role: "[Dodd's] approach differs greatly from the Obama administration's and the legislation going soon before the House of Representatives. Both would empower two bank regulatory agencies and give the Fed more power, not less. Which approach is right? There isn't consensus, even among former Fed governors. 'I am with Dodd on this one,' said Alice Rivlin ... 'The Fed has not distinguished itself as a regulator.' Rivlin said that bank regulation is too fragmented, which creates opportunities for banks to shop for the weakest regulator ... On the other side, Rivlin's former colleague Laurence Meyer ... called the Dodd legislation 'political posturing' by a 'hate the Fed crowd.' He warned that taking the most experienced regulators off the supervisory beat 'increases the risk of crisis going forward.'"

Fed restricting some, but not all, debit card overdraft fees. NYT: "Under the rules announced on Thursday, consumers must be given a notice that explains the debit card policies, including fees. Without permission from the consumer, the card issuer cannot charge for overdrafts at retail stores or A.T.M.’s ... Because the new rules do not cover many other types of transactions, they were criticized by consumer groups."

China Pushes For Looser Trade Rules

China pushes for more trade deals, less rules. Reuters: "In a speech to business and political leaders in Singapore, [China President] Hu made no mention of the Chinese yuan, a hot topic in global financial markets ... Arguing that protectionism stood in the way of a global economic recovery, he called for a push to conclude the Doha round of trade liberalisation talks, which have been stalled for eight years."

Mixed signals on currency policy shift. Reuters: "China's central bank said earlier this week that it will consider major currencies in guiding the yuan, suggesting a departure from the peg. The country then signed up at the end of a meeting of Asia Pacific finance ministers in Singapore on Thursday to a statement that promised 'monetary policies consistent with price stability in the context of market-oriented exchange rates'. However, Thailand's finance minister threw cold water on talk that all this could signal a policy change was on its way."

Hopes For Preliminary Climate Agreement in Copenhagen

W. Post reports WH seeking "short-term climate pact" at next month's UN meeting: "At the heart of the interim pact ... are 'political commitments' from key nations outlining their targets to reduce their own greenhouse gas emissions as well as the amount of money richer countries will spend to help developing nations adapt to global warming and curb their own emissions. Such an approach could provide the incentive for major developing economies such as China and India -- both of whose leaders Obama will meet this month -- to sign onto an international climate agreement, according to experts. Leaders of the European Union, U.S. environmental groups and developing nations have pushed for a binding [long-term] treaty ... But many accept that is no longer possible now that the Senate will not vote on a climate bill this year ... Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) said Tuesday that he is still trying to provide negotiators with 'a sign of political commitment on the part of the United States' by issuing a draft in the next few weeks of the climate bill he is writing with Sens. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) and Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.)."

Wonk Room's Brad Johnson criticizes 14 Senate Dems for pushing coal-friendly pollution permit system: "...a bloc of senators with powerful coal interests in their states called for 'fair emissions allowances in climate change legislation.' Their definition of “fair,” unfortunately, turns out to be full taxpayer subsidies for global warming polluters. They call for the free allocation of pollution permits to electric utilities to be distributed 'fully based on emissions' ... The signatories on the letter defending coal-heavy polluters are Senators Tom Harkin (D-IA), Al Franken (D-MN), Roland Burris (D-IL), Byron Dorgan (D-ND), Herb Kohl (D-WI), Russell Feingold (D-WI), Kent Conrad (D-ND), Michael Bennet (D-CO), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Mark Udall (D-CO), Robert Byrd (D-WV), Carl Levin (D-MI), Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH)."

Climate Progress notes further evidence that Europe's cap-and-trade system is working: "Europe made a major commitment under the Kyoto Protocol that U.S. conservatives have been telling us for years it would never achieve. In fact, the Europeans are poised to surpass their targets under the terms of the Protocol. It is no longer plausible for those who don’t want a U.S. cap-and-trade system to point to the European Trading System (ETS) as a failure. Quite the reverse ... [Further,] the EU-15 will not need to rely on offsets to meet their Kyoto target."

Leading free-trader and fair-trader write joint W. Post oped embracing carbon tariff in any carbon cap bill: "We agree that it is politically unrealistic -- and unwise -- to try to enact a cap-and-trade system that puts manufacturers in the United States at a competitive disadvantage with those operating overseas that do not produce under comparable requirements. It makes no sense to impose a cost on those producing steel, autos and other goods, only to have them shift jobs and pollution to China or India -- which are wary of binding international obligations on emission reductions."

Progressive Breakfast: Reid Not Done

Bill Scher — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:34:12 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day

Reid Not Finished Making Changes To Health Care Bill

Pushback against latest idea from Sen. Carper to bury public option. DailyKos' mcjoan: "A triggered co-op! A trigger that's never going to trigger to create a co-op that will never work. Seriously, this is their Plan B?" HCAN's Jason Rosenbaum: "state-based public options already exist, and they haven't been able to put much of a dent in private insurance:"

Sen. Reid considering payroll tax increase on wealthiest to help pay for reform. AP: "[Anonymous Democratic] said one of the options Reid has had under review would raise the payroll tax that goes to Medicare, but only on income above $250,000 a year. Current law sets the tax at 1.45 percent of income, an amount matched by employers. It was not known how large an increase Reid, D-Nev., was considering, or whether it would also apply to a company's portion of the tax. President Barack Obama has said he will not raise taxes on wage earners making less than $250,000."

Politico Pulse analyzes Reid's moves: "Reid has signaled a willingness to completely re-engineer the proposals as he tries to craft a skeleton key that can unlock 60 'yes' votes. In a nod to the liberals, Reid announced that he would include a public option that states could opt not to participate in – a provision not found in either the Health or Finance bills. Then, word came this week that Reid has authorized Sen. Tom Carper to work on a non-profit, trigger public option aimed at picking up moderate votes. And just yesterday, news leaked that Reid is considering a higher payroll tax on upper income earners – a move likely to be detested by moderates and embraced by liberals. It’s becoming increasingly clear that Reid is working in real time to piece together the 60-vote puzzle and when something doesn’t fit, he’s trying pieces cut fresh from the jigsaw. "

AP looks at influence of Catholic bishops group on health care reform: "They don't spend a dime on what is legally defined as lobbying, but lawmakers and insiders recognize that the bishops' voices matter — and they move votes."

Salon.com's Jeff Sharlet suggests evangelical group The Family plays bigger role: "Neither [Reps. Bart] Stupak nor [Joseph] Pitts is talking. Of course, if they just keep quiet, the press will pin it on the bishops -- who, to be fair, are more than happy to take credit. That version of events neglects the role of relationships forged within the evangelical context of the Family -- a group founded in the spirit of virulent anti-Catholicism, and which maintains to this day that being Catholic brings you no closer to Christ than being Jewish or a Muslim..."

Kanjorski Plan To Limit Bank Size Gains Traction

Wall Street nervous of Kanjorski plan to empower government to "dismantle any large firm whose size and risk-taking threaten the financial system." Bloomberg: "Seven Wall Street lobbyists trooped to Capitol Hill on Nov. 9, hoping to convince Representative Paul Kanjorski’s staff that his plan to dismantle large financial firms was a bad idea. They walked out with a sobering conclusion, according to the accounts of two attendees who requested anonymity because the meeting was private. Not only was Kanjorski serious, he planned to offer the legislation as early as next week -- and it just might pass."

Naked Capitalism unimpressed: "admittedly, the Kanjorski proposal would reinstitute Glass Steagall by splitting commercial banking operations from investment banking and thus lead to some pretty dramatic surgery at JP Morgan (hiving off Chase Manhattan), Citigroup, and Bank of America. But while that would affect the scope of operations (and thus the pay packages, since top level pay is correlated with asset size of the entity) of the highest ranks, it would have comparatively little impact at the business unit level. This is a 1930s remedy for 21st century banking. The Kanjorski proposal does remarkably little to reduce TBTF risk. The real problem is not size, and this approach puts the focus on completely the wrong issue ... The only viable solution to the misbranded TBTF problem is to require systemically important firms ... to exit all activities that are not socially essential and therefore deserving of government support..."

W. Post reports Fed seeking to fight political currents and retain broad autonomy: "Fed officials are working with Congress to explore ways to expand oversight without compromising their ability to make unpopular decisions."

Politico Morning Money flags op-ed from US, Singapore and Indoenesia finance ministers implicitly pressing China on currency: "Market-oriented exchange rates in line with economic fundamentals will be essential in assuring the resource and sectoral shifts to match and foster the new patterns of demand."

Fiscally Foolish "Centrists" Ignore Need For Continued Stimulus

State governments facing severe shortfalls and stress on services for several years, though stimulus has helped. Bloomberg: "U.S. states, which are closing $250 billion of budget deficits, will be forced to grapple with diminished revenue until at least 2012, a survey of fiscal officials found. The only thing that kept states from 'draconian' spending cuts has been $135 billion of funding under President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus package, according to a report from the National Governors Associations and the National Association of State Budget Officers. Revenue fell 7.5 percent in fiscal 2009, forcing states to close budget gaps of $72.7 billion. 'These are the worst numbers we’ve ever seen,' said Scott Pattison, executive director of the budget directors group, in a news release. 'States have been forced to lay off and furlough employees, raise taxes, drain rainy day funds and sharply cut state spending.'"

Right-leaning Senate Dems continue to push for special commission to circumvent procedure and prematurely cut deficit. McClatchy: "The drive on Capitol Hill to create a bipartisan commission to help control the cost of health spending and address mounting deficits picked up momentum Tuesday, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and a handful of moderate Democrats and Republicans voiced support ... McConnell said he'd have to see the composition and mandate of a commission before signing on ... The White House has signaled interest in the Conrad-Gregg commission approach, according to Conrad, but remains non-committal ... The idea of threatening to hold up a measure allowing the government to raise the nation's nearly $12 trillion debt limit to enable the Treasury Department to continue borrowing has attracted strong backing from Sens. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., 13 other Democrats and Lieberman."

WH considering directing TARP funds to deficit reducation. WSJ: "The administration wants to keep some of the unspent funds available for emergencies, but is considering setting aside a chunk for debt reduction, according to people familiar with the matter. It is also expected to lower the projected long-term cost of the program -- the amount it expects to lose -- to as little as $200 billion from $341 billion estimated in August. The idea is still a matter of debate within the administration and it is unclear how much impact it would have on the nation's mounting deficit levels ... the Obama economic team is especially concerned that rapid deficit reduction could hurt the economy."

Climate Update

Sen. Graham's potential support of carbon cap earns him "censure" from local GOP cmte. NYT: "The executive committee of the Charleston County Republican Party, in a voice vote on Monday, rebuked Mr. Graham 'for many of the positions he has taken that do not represent the wishes of the people of South Carolina, such as: passing a "cap and trade" energy bill, bailing out banks and granting amnesty for illegal aliens,' according to the censure resolution."

Change.org's Mike Smith praises Brazil for stepping up on cutting carbon: "Brazil's government pledges to reduce emissions by around 40 per cent of the projected emissions levels in 2020 emissions were no action were taken ... cutting emissions based on 2020 levels may miss the target to help reduce atmospheric levels of Co2. But Brazil [is still] doing much more than other nations..."

Ethopian PM will be tough negotiator at Copenhagen. Bloomberg: "Envoys for the Dec. 7-18 Copenhagen meeting were given a taste of [Meles Zenawi's] clout at climate talks in Barcelona last week when African delegates staged a one-day walkout to demand the developed world cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 40 percent. Meles has threatened a similar exodus at Copenhagen, which could derail an agreement as he’ll represent 52 of the 190 nations present when unanimity is always sought on global UN accords ... Meles demands industrialized countries such as the U.S. and Britain that released most of the historical emissions to compensate developing nations for climate damage they caused in recent decades. He also seeks subsidies to install clean-energy equipment. The cost to richer nations: $67 billion a year."

Progressive Breakfast: Senate To Start Slow Health Care Debate

Bill Scher — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 06:41:59 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day

CBO Expected To Score Senate Bill Soon, Kickstart Debate

The Hill suggests Senate debate starts next week, passage by Christmas, final bill by State of the Union address: "The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is expected to finish its cost analysis of the Senate bill by the end of this week or early next. Senior aides and senators say Democrats plan to pivot quickly and file the first procedural vote as early as Monday ... a first, critical test of the caucus’s unity on procedural votes. Senators ... say the most realistic scenario is for a Senate vote by Christmas followed by final passage in mid-January. That would allow sufficient time for House-Senate conference talks and final House-Senate votes during January’s first weeks."

The Hill also finds "No" votes who are open to voting "Yes" on the final House-Senate bill: "Perriello’s and Nye’s votes should continue to be topics of conversation if the measure comes back to the House, as should Boccieri’s, Kosmas’s, Kissell’s and those of many other vulnerable Democrats."

President indicates to ABC Stupak amendment needs to be scaled back: "I laid out a very simple principle, which is this is a health care bill, not an abortion bill ... there needs to be some more work before we get to the point where we're not changing the status quo."

41 pro-choice House Dems levy threat. The Hill quotes: "We will not vote for a conference report that contains language that restricts women’s right to choose any further than current law"

HuffPost reports Sen. McCaskill shifting away from Stupak: "Less than a day after saying the Senate could live with a health care amendment that greatly restricted a woman's access to abortion in the private insurance market, Sen. Claire McCaskill, (D-MO) announced she opposed such an amendment."

Politico reports on other senators sympathetic to Stupak: "Other key moderates didn’t go quite [as far as Sen. Nelson], but at least two others — Sens. Kent Conrad of North Dakota and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana — said they, too, want to ensure that the Senate bill prevents federal dollars from paying for abortion."

GOP Sen. Susan Collins deems the Senate Finance compromise better than Stupak. Bloomberg: "...she believes the plan that came out of the Senate Finance Committee 'did a good job putting up a firewall that would prevent federal funds from going to abortions.' The committee’s bill prohibits abortion services from being required as part of a minimum benefits package offered through the exchange. It also segregates public subsidy funds from private premium payments for insurance plans that provide abortion services."

FDL's Jon Walker reports Sen. Ben Nelson embracing Stupak: "If Nelson gets his way (and when hasn’t Nelson gotten his way this year?), so much for 'don’t worry, Obama will fix it in conference.' ... If these groups are serious about protecting a woman’s right to choose, they better start looking into [budget] reconciliation."

NYT "news" article complains about lack of cost-cutting because House version does not tax expansive insurance plans. Dean Baker rebuts: "Why Is Using a Public Health Care Plan to Drive Down Health Care Costs Ideology and Not Pragmatism?"

President Clinton to address Senate Dems today. CNN: "Democratic leaders have consistently cited what they call a lesson of the Clinton administration: fail to pass health care, and congressional Democrats will suffer on Election Day."

Dodd Bill Takes A Shot At The Fed

Bloomberg gets a sneak peak at the Dodd bill to be released today: "Senator Christopher Dodd will propose creating a single U.S. regulator that would strip the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. of bank-supervision authority [and] would eliminate the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision and fold the Treasury Department units into the new bank regulator ... Dodd will also propose creating a Consumer Financial Protection Agency, a council of regulators to monitor large firms for disruptive effects on the industry and the economy, and giving the FDIC power to unwind failed firms whose collapse in bankruptcy could shake the economy."

Dodd doesn't have Shelby on board. Politico: "Shelby balked over some of the substance in Dodd’s bill — particularly Dodd’s determination to include the so-called consumer financial protection agency. But the main tension appears to be one of timing. Shelby and his staff felt there were serious weaknesses and unanswered questions in the proposal that they needed addressed before moving forward with compromise talk ... Dodd and his staff – no doubt feeling pressure from the White House – feel a greater sense of urgency, and they believe they’ve thoroughly explored the relevant issues in dozens of hearings and sit-downs with experts ... a partisan vote in committee doesn’t mean that’s the end of negotiations between Dodd and Shelby."

Wonk Room's Pat Garofalo questions Treasury opposition to a financial transaction tax: "...the tax could raise some deficit-reducing revenue, while giving us a more efficient financial system. That’s something that Geithner should be willing to spend a few moments contemplating."

NYT on the latest attacks on consumers by credit card companies: "Interest rates are going up, credit lines are being cut and a variety of new fees are being imposed on even the best cardholders ... lawmakers have accused them of trying to impose rate increases before many of the new rules take effect in February ... the House of Representatives voted last week to make the law effective immediately. The bill now goes to the Senate, where a vote has not been scheduled. The Senate Banking Committee chairman, Christopher J. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut, meanwhile, is pushing legislation that would freeze interest rates on existing credit card balances until the law takes effect."

Obama to press China on currency on his upcoming Asia trip. NYT: "Mr. Obama has so far resisted domestic pressure to brand China as a currency manipulator, which could anger a crucial U.S. creditor, and when asked about this in the interview he parried the question ... He did, however, say that the two countries share a common interest in delivering sustainable growth that will help rebalance the global economy ... [and] did acknowledge that the complaints about access to Chinese markets had some validity."

Right-leaning Senate Dems threaten to block debt limit increase without new commission to prematurely slash budget deficit outside of regular procedure. CQ: "Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad said he and 10 other senators have told Majority Leader Harry Reid that they will not vote for an increase in the debt limit without also having a vote on creating a special process to deal with ... long-term budget problems ... Conrad has pushed hard for creation of a commission of lawmakers and administration officials that would produce policy proposals that Congress would have to consider for curtailing the growth in government debt."

Baucus Pledges To Pass Climate Bill

CQ reports Sen. Max Baucus is promising to pass climate protection legislation before midterms: "'There’s no doubt that this Congress is going to pass climate change legislation,' said Baucus, whose committee kicks off hearings on the issue [today]. 'I don’t know if it will be this year, very likely next year. But I very much want climate change legislation. I think it’s very important for my state and for the country.' Baucus’ pledge to press for legislation addressing global warming is especially important because his panel has jurisdiction over particularly contentious parts of any cap-and-trade bill, including the formula for distributing billions of dollars in emissions allowances to polluters."

HuffPost on Baucus' links to special interests: "The Sunlight Foundation's Paul Blumenthal traces Sen. Max Baucus' special interest ties to climate legislation -- 12 of his former staffers, including four former chiefs of staff, now lobby for organizations with a vested interest in the policy.

EPA & WH keep raising pressure on Congress, moving towards EPA regulation of carbon. WSJ: "... the Obama administration appears one step closer to creating its own regime for controlling greenhouse gases. On Monday, the Environmental Protection Agency announced it sent the White House Office of Management and Budget its proposed finding that greenhouse gases endanger human health and welfare. Adoption of that endangerment finding is the legal precursor to regulating such gases under the Clean Air Act.

Climate Progress on new Pew polls in swing states: "Polling from 3 key states — and 5 key districts — finds strong support for the climate and clean energy bill ... 75% of voters in Michigan favor. 68% of voters in Ohio favor. 67% of voters in Missouri favor ... You can find details on the 8 polls here."

Politico reports veterans groups are increasingly supportive of climate legislation on national security grounds: "...scores of retired admirals and generals are lending their stars to the boards of energy security organizations in ways that could expand the political base for new climate change policies ... Citing what many see as weather-related calamities that are striking with increasing fury, possibly because of climate change, [CAP's Rudy] DeLeon said that the military services 'see the displacement that is occurring when these disasters hit' because of their role in aiding the world’s most important humanitarian missions."

NYT reports on friction between EPA heads and two EPA lawyers critical of cap-and-trade approach: "The Environmental Protection Agency has directed two of its lawyers to makes changes to a YouTube video they posted that is critical of the Obama administration’s climate change policy. The agency, citing federal policies, told the two lawyers, Laurie Williams and Allan Zabel ... that they could mention their E.P.A. affiliation only once; must remove language specifying Mr. Zabel’s expertise and their years of employment with the agency; and must remove an image of the agency’s office in San Francisco."

Grist's David Roberts critical of both parties: "even though I think many of Williams & Zabel’s policy arguments are deeply flawed, I can’t see any justification for refusing them the right to communicate honestly about their backgrounds to the public. EPA should back off."

Progressive Breakfast: No. Sleep. Till Cloture.

Bill Scher — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 05:35:39 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day.

No Rest For The Weary As Health Care Moves To The Senate

LA Times on Reid's timing: 'Reid is hoping to bring the issue before the Senate in a week or so, but he has yet to put the finishing touches on the bill that will be the starting point of debate "

Politico notes Reid is waiting on the CBO: "The negotiations have since slowed precipitously as Reid waits for Congressional Budget Office estimates ... The CBO isn’t expected to deliver cost estimates of the Senate bill until the end of this week. If senators aren’t able to bring the bill to the floor until after Thanksgiving, they would have only four weeks to debate the most sweeping legislation in 40 years, vote on it, merge it with the House version, wait for another round of CBO estimates and move it back through both chambers on final passage."

Abortion fight not over. W. Post: "Although House liberals voted for the bill with the amendment to keep the process moving forward, Rep. Diana DeGette (Colo.) said she has collected more than 40 signatures from House Democrats vowing to oppose any final bill that includes the amendment -- enough to block passage."

Politico explores how the anti-abortion amendment got passed: "t wasn’t just that [Speaker Pelosi] was disappointing some members over a last-minute change they disagreed with. She had to take on her closest and senior-most lieutenants on an issue that for many of them is like an article of faith, a defining tenet of what makes them a Democrat. And when she needed the votes, that’s what she did ... in the end ... pro-abortion-rights lawmakers weren’t willing to derail the entire health care bill over the issue."

The Treatment's Jonathan Cohn praises the House over the Senate: "Do not be fooled by the Beltway conventional wisdom, which has repeatedly treated House legislation as inferior to its counterpart in the Senate. If anything, the opposite is true ... Republicans have repeatedly mocked the House bill because of its length. But there is a reason the bill needs so many pages: It's the product of thinking carefully about how best to design a health care system ... for example, the all-important question of how to design insurance exchanges--the House bill holds up extremely well. And the bill pays for itself--not just in the first ten years, as the original version did, but in the future, as well. It may not do as much to reduce the overall cost of health care as the Senate bill would; in the view of most experts, that's the House bill's chief weakness. But it at least makes moves in the direction of cost-control."

NYT on special interest grousing: "Insurers do not like the provision to create a new government-run insurance program. Drug makers oppose billions of dollars in rebates they would have to give to the government over 10 years. Makers of artificial hips, heart defibrillators and other medical devices are not particularly happy about the proposed 2.5 percent tax on their products. And employers large and small oppose rules that, for many of them, would make health care coverage — long a job benefit — become a federally mandated obligation. That is why, as attention now shifts to the Senate, where Democratic leaders are trying to merge two bills into one, virtually every business group with a stake in the outcome will be hoping to strike at least a slightly better deal than they found in the House version."

Some new congresspeople aren't wimps. Politico: "For [first-term and second-term swing-district Reps.] Perriello, Kilroy, Driehaus and Space, the health care bill represented their second exceptionally tough vote this year — the other was on the cap-and-trade bill — meaning they’ve essentially doubled down on the ambitious national Democratic agenda. New York Democratic Rep. Bill Owens, who was sworn into office earlier this week ... [also] voted for Saturday’s bill after holding an ambiguous position regarding a public option."

Baucus To Work His Magic On Climate Bill

With Boxer cmte done, now it's Baucus' and Bingaman's turn. ClimateWire: "Tomorrow, the Finance and Energy and Natural Resources committees dive into the issue with a pair of simultaneous hearings on climate policy. On Finance, Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) will study the job implications of global warming legislation ... he may hold a markup this year on the trade provisions of a climate bill and address how to distribute greenhouse gas emission allowances ... Energy and Natural Resources Chairman Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.) will lead a wide-ranging discussion on legislation options for tackling climate change ... ponsors remain about 15 to 20 votes shy of the 60 needed to break a filibuster. And some of the key senators who sit on the Finance panel are either on the fence or close to it, including Bingaman, Rockefeller, Lincoln, and Sens. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), Olympia Snowe (R-Maine.) and Mike Crapo (R-Idaho).

Wall Street Keeps Shoveling Out The Bonus Money

Three major banks doling out $30B in record bonuses. Bloomberg: "Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s investment bank, survivors of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, are set to pay record bonuses this year. The firms -- the three biggest banks to exit the Troubled Asset Relief Program -- will hand out $29.7 billion in bonuses, according to analysts’ estimates. That’s up 60 percent from last year and more than the previous high of $26.8 billion in 2007. The money, split among 119,000 employees, equals $250,400 each, almost five times the $50,303 median household income in the U.S. last year..."

US, UK split over taxing financial transactionx to curb speculation: "Group of 20 governments signaled banks will be forced to cover a greater cost of future bailouts even as they split over whether that should be achieved by taxing financial trading ... [British PM Gordon] Brown repeated his call for nations to consider the financial-transaction tax ... Geithner responded that a 'day-by-day' tax on speculation is 'not something we’re prepared to support.'"

Progressive Breakfast: Boxer Blows Past GOP Boycott

Bill Scher — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 06:39:28 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day.

Boxer Blows Past Boycott, As Tripartisan Trio Works With WH

BREAKING THIS AM: Sen. Boxer's Environment and Public Works Committee passes clean energy jobs and climate protection legislation 10-1, shoving aside GOP boycott of mark-up session by not including any amendments. (Sen. Baucus was lone No vote, though he pledged to continue working towards compromise.)

Tripartisan trio of Sens. Kerry, Graham and Lieberman offer optimism on climate compromise after WH talks. Wonk Room quotes Graham: "The green economy is coming. We can either follow or lead ... Our country doesn’t have the infrastructure in place to build a green economy and never will until we price carbon."

Climate Progress quotes Kerry on next steps for compromise: "Our effort is to try to reach out to broaden the base of support beyond the six committees of jurisdiction. And we’re going to do that working very closely with the chairs of those committees as well as with members across the Senate. The key here is to really negotiate once in a sense, not negotiate with ourselves and not negotiate just in the Senate and then not have the White House also at the table. ... We will be working closely with the White House over the course of the next weeks with a few to trying to pull together what ultimately could be presented to Sen. Reid and the leadership as a piece of legislation that we hope could get the 60 votes necessary..."

The Vine's Brad Plumer is cautiously optimistic: "...that doesn't mean it's all placid sailing from here on out ... finding common ground between conservatives and liberals on nuclear power could be a devilish task, although there are signs that many nuclear skeptics are softening their stance ... At this point, the odds of a bill passing still look reasonably decent, but it's looking less and less likely the Senate will make much headway before the Copenhagen talks in December."

Vast majority of economists back market-based action on global warming in new survey. Green Inc.: "A New York University School of Law survey found near unanimity among 144 top economists that global warming threatens the United States economy and that a cap-and-trade system of carbon regulation will spur energy efficiency and innovation."

ClimateWire reports several senators concerned that cap-and-trade approach would lead to market manipulation: "Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) ... has said Congress will probably have to pass financial reforms that regulate the $300 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market before passing carbon cap-and-trade legislation ... Republican leaders, including Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), ranking member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, also said financial reform will probably need to come first to get Republican support ... Sens. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) and Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) ... are deeply skeptical about whether a market-based system for reducing greenhouse gas emissions can be safeguarded from abuse and manipulation."

Sen. Sherrod Brown, Blue-Green Alliance release report showing higher renewable energy mandate would create 850,000 jobs. AFL-CIO Blog: "The report says if Congress enacts a federal Renewable Electricity Standard (RES), which would require the nation’s utilities to produce 25 percent of our electricity using renewable sources by 2025, it would stimulate enough demand for the component parts needed to make wind turbines, solar panels and other clean energy technologies to create 850,000 jobs at existing U.S. manufacturers across the country."

HuffPost promotes new report on fierce corporate lobbying to kill international deal: "The Center For Public Integrity just released a blockbuster investigative report that details the intense corporate pressure to block an effective global treaty from being reached at the UN Climate Talks in Copenhagen in December, and to halt efforts in individual countries to limit greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to fierce lobbying behind closed doors, some of the most aggressive tactics deployed by resource giants such as Exxon Mobil, Peabody Coal and other energy and agriculture interests are often the most public: spreading fear and misinformation about the true impact of emissions regulations."

New business group forms supportive of carbon cap: "More than a dozen leading U.S. corporations- including Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG), DB Climate Change Advisors (Deutsche Bank Group), Gap Inc., and National Grid- announced the launch of a new initiative to support Congressional action on clean energy and climate change legislation. The goal of the new group, called American Businesses for Clean Energy (ABCE), is to offer a platform for leading U.S. businesses to express their support for meaningful and effective legislation..."

International dispute over climate insurance proposal. ClimateWire: "Advocates for nations vulnerable to climate change are accusing the United States of trying to 'kill' a prominent global warming provision that would create a massive insurance program for countries that face rising destruction from natural disasters ... The program could cost the United States and other developed nations billions every year, and perhaps amount to an admission that Americans are largely responsible for warming the world."

House Health Care Vote Expected Saturday

AP: "The House is steaming toward a historic vote on President Barack Obama's remake of the U.S. health care system, with Democratic leaders increasingly confident and the powerful seniors' lobby AARP about to get on board ... Leaders stopped short Wednesday of declaring they had the 218 votes needed to pass the bill, and they were still negotiating language on abortion and immigration. But scheduling the vote meant those issues would have to be resolved and undecided lawmakers would have to declare themselves ... Action is slower on the other side of the Capitol, where senators are awaiting an analysis from the Congressional Budget Office..."

GOP alternative covers almost no one, yet doesn't cut the deficit as much. NYT: "The Republican bill, which has no chance of passage, would extend insurance coverage to about 3 million people by 2019, and would leave about 52 million people uninsured, the budget office said, meaning the proportion of non-elderly Americans with coverage would remain about the same as now, at roughly 83 percent ... the Republican bill would reduce future federal deficits by $68 billion over 10 years, compared to a reduction of $104 billion by the House Democrats’ legislation."

Strengthening, Weakening of Financial Reform

Boston Globe reports Rep. Frank may fix loopholes in derivatives reform bill: "House Financial Services Committee chairman Barney Frank, under fire from some fellow Democrats and consumer groups for carving out what they call loopholes in legislation designed to prevent another economic meltdown, said in a letter released tonight that 'there may be a problem here'' and that he wants to reconsider ... Heather Booth, director of Americans for Financial Reform, said in an interview that she raised concerns about loopholes in the legislation and she said Frank responded that he would try to tighten such exemptions. Booth said she left the meeting encouraged. Booth stressed, however, that her group still has concerns about whether all of the loopholes will be closed."

House cmte backs weakening amendment. CQ: "The panel also voted 37-32 to approve an amendment by Scott Garrett, R-N.J., and John Adler, D-N.J., that would permanently exempt businesses with a market capitalization up to $75 million from complying with independent auditing requirements under the Sarbanes-Oxley law (PL 107-204)."

Dodd to release bill next week, hold financial reform markup before Thanksgiving, reports CQ: "Still, passing an overhaul package in the full Senate before the end of the year could be difficult, given serious concerns from the panel’s ranking Republican, Richard C. Shelby of Alabama."

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Robert Reich, in Salon, tells Blue Dogs to back additional stimulus or risk losing re-election: "Everything else on the table -- a new jobs tax credit, more loans to small businesses, more help to troubled homeowners, another extension of unemployment insurance, another round of subsidies to first-time home buyers -- are small potatoes relative to the importance and likely effect of a larger stimulus. Some of these initiatives may do some good, but even combined they'll barely make a dent in the growing numbers of jobless Americans ... [The Blue Dogs are] more politically endangered next November if the the job numbers aren't moving in the right direction by then than if they vote for a larger stimulus now."

Senate passes unemployment insurance extension. HuffPost: "The GOP called for the check Wednesday night, having had enough of the fight over an extension of unemployment benefits that the party had held up for several weeks. While the Senate was stuck in parliamentary limbo, some 200,000 people actively looking for work lost their unemployment benefits. The bill extends unemployment benefits for an additional 14 weeks across the country, and in some states with the highest unemployment the extension goes to 20 weeks. The extension itself was not controversial and passed 98-0. Getting there, however, was a Herculean parliamentary task that provides insight into just how hard it is to pass even popular legislation in the Senate with a minority party intent on opposing the majority's agenda step by laborious step." House may vote today, reports Bloomberg.

Biz tax credits included in unemployment bill. The Hill: "Democrats anxious about high unemployment have shifted gears and are poised to expand a stimulus provision that would quickly put $33 billion in the pockets of businesses. The Senate on Wednesday approved a tax break that allows firms to carry back losses to get refunds on taxes paid over the past five years, and the House is expected to follow ... The carryover won’t serve as stimulus and will only give more money to businesses, said liberal economist Dean Baker."

White House Debunks 7 Green Stimulus Bill Myths reports Treehugger.

Concern that IMF too weak to address global imbalances. Bloomberg: " The Group of 20’s effort to shift the global economy away from dependence on U.S. spending and Chinese savings may fail because the International Monetary Fund lacks the power to enforce its policy prescriptions, the IMF’s past three chief economists said."

Progressive Breakfast: Climate Bill Boost Despite GOP Antics

Bill Scher — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 07:32:40 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day

Kerry-Graham Climate Talks Advance Despite GOP Cmte Boycott

Chamber of Commerce (the real one) moves towards supporting Kerry-Graham climate compromise. Politico quotes top Chamber lobbyist: "Senators Kerry and Graham have set forth a positive, practical and realistic framework for legislation, one that echoes the core principles that the Chamber embeds in all of its communications on climate policy."

WH joins Kerry-Graham deliberations. CQ: "Even as a partisan stalemate has stalled a Senate panel’s markup of climate change legislation, behind-the-scenes efforts to engineer a bipartisan compromise are advancing, with negotiators scheduled to meet Wednesday to plot strategy with Cabinet secretaries and White House officials. The partnership of Massachusetts Democrat John Kerry and South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham, who are trying to write a broader climate bill that can win Republican votes in the Senate, was boosted Tuesday with a cautious endorsement by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce ... Senate Environment and Public Works Chairwoman Barbara Boxer, D‑Calif., called the chamber’s letter a game-changer."

Meanwhile, other Republicans throw tantrum, boycott cmte markup session for specious reason. Politico: "Republicans would like an additional five weeks for the Environmental Protection Agency to complete a study of the legislation ... the EPA has already conducted extensive analysis of the House legislation, and the agency released a second, 38-page analysis of the Kerry-Boxer bill last month ... Another study, said Boxer aides, would cost $140,000 and take roughly five weeks. Amendments passed by the committee would also change any estimates, noted Democrats ... Boxer said that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will commission a full study of the final bill. Six committees are handling sections of the legislation, and Democratic leaders will eventually combine their work into one bill. The additional study of the final bill all but guarantees that the legislation will not be taken up until at least early next year."

Coal-state Dem Sen. Jay Rockefeller suggests climate bill can wait until 2011 reports Politico, but Kerry optimistic: "But even with all these obstacles, Kerry, who has become the lead negotiator on climate change, still thinks a deal could be made by Christmas. 'I absolutely believe it’s possible. It’s Nov. 3 today. We’re talking about seven weeks from now.'"

German Chancellor urges action in address to joint session of Congress, receives polarized response. W. Post: "While the entire Democratic side gave those remarks a standing ovation, most Republicans -- including key swing voters, such as Sen. Richard G. Lugar (Ind.) -- remained in their seats. When Merkel added that curbing greenhouse gas emissions would spur growth in 'innovative' jobs worldwide, the same partisan divide marked lawmakers' reaction. Merkel tried to assuage lawmakers' concerns that any agreement coming out of international climate talks in Copenhagen next month would not include binding commitments from China and India, saying those nations will make serious emissions cuts once the leaders of industrialized nations 'show ourselves ready to adopt binding commitments.'"

Final House Health Care Bill Released

Speaker Pelosi releases "manager's amendment." Abortion still not fully resolved. TPMDC's Brian Buetler: "At a glance I see some tweaks firming up the provisions ending the anti-trust exemptions for insurance companies, and creating some real consequences for violators. Again, at a glance, I see no changes to the public option, particularly one, requested by House progressives, to create a ceiling on the rates negotiated between the government and health care providers. I also see not a single word about abortion--Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) wants to ban any and all federal money--including money spent on subsidies for private insurance plans--from paying for abortions, and he's been raising quite a fuss about it. Seems like Pelosi's calling his bluff."

LA Times suggests an abortion compromise will be reached: "Abortion-rights activists maintain that Stupak's amendment would effectively prevent private insurance companies from offering abortion services through the exchanges, reducing the availability of those services to women nationwide. 'Stupak is basically saying you cannot even participate in the exchange unless your plan does not cover abortion,' said Nancy Keenan, president of NARAL Pro-Choice America. 'He's taking away coverage from women who already have it.' Meantime, another member of the House's Pro-Life Caucus, Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.), is negotiating with the leadership to toughen the funding restrictions and require at least one insurer in the exchange to offer a plan that doesn't cover abortion. House leaders said that they expected a compromise to be reached with Ellsworth that would satisfy enough of the antiabortion Democrats."

CQ on timing: "The procedural move kicks off a 72-hour review period after which leaders say they intend to bring the health bill (HR 3962) to a vote..."

Dems predict passage in House next week. Reuters: "Democrats in the House pushed ahead with plans to take up a healthcare reform bill later this week, and Democratic leader Steny Hoyer said they had enough support to pass it. 'I am confident that we are going to pass this bill,' Hoyer told reporters, predicting passage before a planned recess begins in the middle of next week."

Sen. Reid suggests health care may not pass until next year, then suggests otherwise. AP: "'We're not going to be bound by any timelines. We need to do the best job we can for the American people,' he said after the weekly closed-door meeting of rank-and-file Democrats. A few hours later, Reid's office revised his remarks. 'Our goals remain unchanged. We want to get health insurance reform done this year...'"

Sen. Durbin says timeline depends on CBO, reports CQ: "Are we going to finish by the end of the year? ... How soon will CBO get finished?"

Sen. Landrieu working with Sen. Snowe to resurrect the "trigger" compromise reports W. Post. Sen. Ben Nelson supportive reports TPMDC.

NYT says immigration issues loom: "Some Republicans favor excluding immigrants who have been legal permanent residents for less than five years, as well as all illegal immigrants. Democrats broadly agree that illegal immigrants should be excluded, but many want all legal permanent residents to be able to participate in proposed health insurance exchanges and receive subsidized coverage if they qualify. Latino leaders ... have started an 11th-hour campaign to eliminate waiting periods for them in the proposed legislation and to cancel the existing five-year wait for Medicare and Medicaid programs."

Wonk Room analyzes new GOP health care bill: "The bill includes the word ’shall’ 378 times, but does very little to expand access or lower health care costs ... the amendment shifts the costs and risks of insurance onto individuals and divides the market into low-cost plans for the healthy and high-cost insurance for the sick."

Organizing For America pushes public option, reports The Plum Line: "Obama’s political operation is about to unleash a wave of emails pressuring members of Congress, Democrats included, to vote for the House health care bill. And, notably, it explicitly singles out the bill’s provision containing a public option ... Organizing for America — and Obama himself — have been criticized for not throwing enough weight behind the provision."

W. Post piece claims bills won't cut health care costs because they won't end tax exemption for employer benefits and don't do tort reform. Robust public option never mentioned. Dean Baker rips W. Post: "The Washington Post had a front page news story complaining that the health care reform plans being considered by Congress will not have major savings in part because they do not include tort reform. The Post tells readers that tort reform could save $54 billion over the next decade. Let's see, we will spend about $30 trillion on health care over the next decade, so this comes to less than 0.2 percent in total spending. Is this the best chance to have savings on health care?"

Searching For More Stimulus

WH trying to create more jobs without increasing deficit. W. Post: "On Monday, the Presidential Economic Recovery Advisory Board ... recommended advancing ongoing federal efforts to retrofit and weatherize homes and public buildings, possibly by partnering with mayors. Members also urged establishment of an infrastructure bank, an idea Obama advocated during the presidential campaign. The bank, which would be seeded with federal money, would allow the federal government to float long-term bonds to help finance large projects, such as transit systems, housing developments, water distribution networks, roads and bridges. While the federal government issues bonds to finance its deficits, it does not issue bonds to pay for specific projects. Under the proposals endorsed by Obama during the campaign, and embodied in proposals on Capitol Hill, an independent board would determine which projects are funded..."

Extended unemployment insurance should pass Senate this week. AFL-CIO Blog: "After weeks of obstruction by Republican Senate leaders, millions of jobless workers who have or who will soon run out of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits may finally have a chance to grab an economic lifeline in the form of extended UI benefits. The U.S. Senate yesterday approved a procedural motion that clears the way to a vote on legislation (H.R. 3548) that would provide an additional 14 weeks of benefits to unemployed workers in all states and up to 20 weeks in states with especially high jobless rates. The Senate could vote as early as [Wed.], but a Thursday vote is more likely."

Unemployment bill may also extend homebuyer tax credit. NYT: "The Senate and House are poised to agree on a compromise measure to extend unemployment benefits that also would expand a popular $8,000 tax credit for homebuyers, despite a recent government report on extensive mistakes and suspected fraud in the program ... Democrats are eager to show progress before Friday, when the October jobless report is again expected to show high unemployment ... real estate groups and some economists say the credit has helped stabilize the housing market, critics say it is too costly a subsidy when low interest rates and home prices are incentives enough for most."

Dems Tinker With Reform As Britain Breaks Up The Banks

Sen. Dodd to introduce financial reform bill without Sen. Shelby. W. Post: "The legislation, which is still being finalized, would consolidate federal responsibility for banking oversight, now assigned to four agencies, into a single regulator. And, compared with the plan rolled out by the White House, Dodd's measure would grant less power to the Federal Reserve to curb activities that pose a risk to the entire financial system ... But staff members on both sides of the aisle say [Dodd and Shelby] have yet to see eye to eye on a number of issues, including a proposal to create a new consumer agency and heightened government authority for dealing with large, troubled financial firms ... Dodd hopes his committee will begin the formal process of approving his bill as soon as the week after next..."

Rep. Frank makes tweaks to his bill. CQ: "Frank, D-Mass., told reporters Tuesday that a draft bill designed to mitigate the broad economic risks posed by the largest financial institutions would get a number of tweaks: a new financing provision would be added, a confidential listing of at-risk firms would be eliminated, and the authority of federal regulators to break up teetering conglomerates would likely be enhanced. A separate bill to regulate over-the-counter derivatives will also be amended on the floor to ensure that major banks aren’t able to evade new restrictions." ALSO, W. Post reports Frank wants Elizabeth Warren to head new CFPA.

British breaking up the banks. W. Post: "The British government announced Tuesday that it will break up parts of major financial institutions bailed out by taxpayers, highlighting a growing divide across the Atlantic over how to deal with the massive banks that were partially nationalized during the height of the financial crisis ... the Obama administration has maintained that large banks should be preserved because they play an important role in the economy and that taxpayers instead should be protected by creating a new system for liquidating large banks that run into problems. But Britain's decision already is being cited by a growing chorus of experts, including prominent bankers and economists, who want the United States to pursue a similar approach."

Progressive Breakfast: Boxer Stares Down GOP

Bill Scher — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 07:17:24 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day

GOP Boycotts Today's Climate Bill Mark-up. No One Cares.

Sen. Boxer to proceed with climate bill markup today despite Republican delay tactics, after offering procedural concessions. Climate: "Boxer still plans to begin the markup at 9 a.m. with opening statements. But she agreed to suspend the markup at 2 p.m. for an open-door meeting with U.S. EPA officials to answer committee members' questions about the economic modeling of the legislation ... Republicans, who ignored yesterday deadline for filing amendments, also now have until 5 p.m. today to submit any suggested changes to the bill ... [GOP Sen. George] Voinovich declined to say whether he would attend the question-and-answer session ... But Voinovich did say he had no plans to back down on the boycott until he gets a more complete assessment of the climate bill from EPA..."

CQ notes an in-depth analysis will take weeks, and other studies are already completed. "EPA officials said they would need another four or five weeks to produce a more in-depth analysis — which Republicans say is a necessity before they attend a markup. But waiting would put Boxer under pressure from the White House. President Obama wants the Senate bill to show movement before a U.N. climate change summit in Copenhagen begins Dec. 7. Democrats say there have been ample studies of the legislation. The EPA, Congressional Budget Office and Energy Information Administration conducted in-depth studies of the House legislation that Boxer says largely apply to the Senate bill, which she describes as '90 percent the same.' ... Inhofe said one Republican will attend Tuesday’s session to keep an eye on things, but he declined to name that senator. He said committee rules require the presence of two members of the minority to constitute a quorum."

Kerry and Graham to meet with top White House climate officials. ClimateWire: "Kerry and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) are scheduled to meet tomorrow with several top Obama administration officials on the climate bill, including White House energy and climate adviser Carol Browner, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar and Energy Secretary Steven Chu. 'We have to get back some of the things we've been requesting from them, which will help to be able to determine what's real in terms of options and negotiations and so forth,' Kerry said. Asked what materials he is waiting for, Kerry replied, 'Ah ha! You'll have to see.'"

Carbon market consulting firm concludes oil industry cost under cap-and-trade is manageable, picture mixed for power companies. WSJ's Environmental Capital: "Oil companies are mightily exposed to the legislation—but the final bill will be just a drop in the bucket compared to their huge sales. Exxon, for instance, accounts for 6.5% of all the U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions covered by the Senate bill. The oil giant’s initial 'carbon bill' would be about $5.9 billion. But it can get almost all that back through slightly higher prices at the gas pump, leaving its net carbon bill at $277 million. Chevron and ConocoPhillips face similar, if smaller, bills. The picture for power companies is a bit different—the final bill is a bigger portion of their smaller sales and profits. Utilities with lots of coal will be hit hardest, Point Carbon notes. That means Duke (a net carbon bill of $129 million), Southern Company ($393 million), and American Electric Power ($252 million). Other power companies would actually come out ahead—those that have lots of renewable energy or low-emissions nuclear power plants. That group includes Exelon (net carbon gain of $1.7 billion), FirstEnergy ($494 million) and Edison ($279 million)."

Chairwoman of next month's Copenhagen meeting maintains hope for international agreement: "I know it's difficult, and I know the time constraint. But I also know from conversations with many American friends that a lot can be achieved in a few weeks, provided that the health care bill is dealt with in the not-too-distant future. They must find out how to avoid coming empty-handed to Copenhagen ... The momentum is so big that something will come out of Copenhagen. The involvement from ministers is as strong as ever, and they will expect their negotiators to be able to come up with a text that marks clear political choices."

Copenhagen pre-game negotiations in Barcelona yet to make progress. Treehugger: "...initial reports aren't exactly encouraging: An IEA official says negotiators aren't ready to solve any of the problems on the table; while pressure builds on the United States to actually commit to a meaningful 2020 emission reductions target ... Yvo de Boer, head of the UN Climate Change Secretariat: 'We need a clear target from the United States in Copenhagen. That is an essential component of the puzzle.'"

de Boer told Barcelona negotiators time is running out: "On Monday he reminded negotiators in Barcelona that there were only five days left to narrow down options and come up with working texts before they regrouped in December."

Health Care Grinds On

House floor action won't begin this week. CQ: "Differences among House Democrats over issues related to abortion and immigration have forced Democratic leaders to delay floor action on health care legislation until the end of the week as they attempt to satisfy moderate members of their caucus. A manager’s amendment that is expected to include compromise language on both issues will not be ready until Tuesday at the earliest, Democratic leadership aides said Monday. Because Democrats have agreed to allow House members — and the public — to see the amendment 72 hours before debate begins, floor action likely will not begin until Nov. 6, the aides said."

Politico speculates health care may not finally pass until 2010: "The House could take up reform on the floor as early as this week, with a good shot at passing something by Veterans Day. But in the Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid is still wrangling with his moderate members to corral 60 votes just to get the debate started. And on Monday, Reid sent a letter to Republicans acknowledging that he is waiting on the Congressional Budget Office’s cost estimates and analysis to finish drafting a bill. Democrats signaled that those estimates would not be ready this week, casting further doubt on their ability to finish reform this year."

The Hill reports House "centrists" are gradually coming around: "'We’re not there yet, but we’re in a better spot than we were a week before the climate change vote,' said a Democratic leadership aide..."

Beltway view is Lieberman won't filibuster. The Hill: "Reid’s staff has told anxious liberals that Lieberman has given the Democratic leader assurances that he will not wreck the reform bill because of Reid’s decision to include the public option, according to two sources briefed on the issue. As a result, well-connected liberals inside the Beltway who are in touch with Reid’s office have taken a more optimistic view of Lieberman’s position, while activists and bloggers outside the loop have seethed over his statements from last week."

Ezra Klein flags Jon Gruber analysis that House bill will reduce premiums: "...the CBO projected that, absent reform, the cost of an individual policy in the nongroup market would be $6,000 for a plan with an actuarial value of 60 percent. This implies that the same plan that cost $6,000 without reform would cost $4,540 with reform, or almost 25 percent less ... This conclusion is consistent with evidence from Massachusetts ... the results have been an enormous reduction in the cost of nongroup insurance in the state: The average individual premium in the state fell from $8,537 at the end of 2006 to $5,143 in mid-2009, a 40 percent reduction, while the rest of the nation was seeing a 14 percent increase."

House Dems argue their bill will reduce premiums. NYT: "As the House moved toward climactic votes on legislation to remake the health care system, the Congressional Budget Office said Monday that middle-income families might be required to pay 15 percent to 18 percent of their income on insurance premiums and co-payments under the proposal. Democrats cited the figures as evidence that the legislation would reduce premiums for many low- and middle-income families who currently lack affordable coverage."

Senate analysis challenges where private insurance revenue goes. NYT: "The health insurance industry likes to cite figures showing that 87 cents of every dollar in premiums is spent on medical claims. But a new Senate analysis suggests that for-profit insurance companies are spending much less than that, especially for policies sold to individuals and small businesses. Instead, as little as 66 cents of each dollar paid in premiums goes toward doctor and hospital bills, while the rest covers administrative expenses, marketing and company profits..."

Republican plan won't even ban discrimination against people with pre-existing conditions: "Republicans plan to offer a measure much narrower in scope and more modest in its goals. GOP leaders are unable to say yet how much their bill would cost or how many Americans would gain health insurance under their plan, but Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) said Monday that his party's bill was sent to the Congressional Budget Office for scoring ... Boehner said Monday that the measure would not include language banning insurance companies from denying coverage to consumers with preexisting conditions..."

Nebraska poll shows support for public option, despite Sen. Nelson's opposition: reports HuffPost.

Economic Breakfast Sides

Bloomberg speculates Congress may stop Fed from endings its intervention in the housing market: "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is gambling that come March, he can stop the purchases of mortgage-backed securities that have propped up the U.S. housing market. Congress may have other ideas ... Bernanke ... is counting on private investors to fill the void left by the Fed when its purchases end. If he’s wrong, he may come under pressure from politicians to maintain support for housing or even extend credit programs for small businesses and consumers. That would threaten the Fed’s ability to conduct an independent monetary policy."

HuffPost's Shahien Nasiripour reports WH Chief of Staff Emanuel backs Rep. Maloney amendment to weaken financial reform: "White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel has been telling Democratic members of the House Financial Services Committee that he supports amending the Investor Protection Act of 2009 -- a bill designed to beef up protection for investors -- in order to exempt small businesses from a requirement in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act that mandates audits of internal controls ... Emanuel is said to support an amendment proposed by Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) that would exempt firms with a market capitalization of less than $75 million from the reporting requirement."

Politico reports on pushback against House too-big-to-fail bill: "...House Financial Services Committee chair Barney Frank may postpone today's scheduled committee consideration of systemic risk legislation and instead call for further hearings ... postponement would come following 'significant' concerns from Dems on the committee over how the bill is structured. The main dispute centers on who would pay -- and when -- if the federal government is forced to dismantle a giant bank whose collapse would threaten the financial system. The White House and Frank initially preferred language that would place the cost on the failing company's competitors but would give the competitors 60 months from the time of the wind-down to pay back the government, sticking tax-payers with the bill for five years. Some Democrats and other opponents of the White House/Frank plan would rather assess fees on banks with $10 billion or more in assets. The fees would go into a fund to be used to wind down failing firms if necessary. Banks are not thrilled with the idea of paying into this fund ... Frank yesterday indicated he would be willing to push an amendment that would require firms to pre-pay. Treasury Secretary Geithner has warned that such a fund would create moral hazard, encouraging excessive risk-taking on the part of banks who know they have such a fund to rely on."

Senate reform bill may come next week. CQ: "Dodd, D-Conn., and his aides have confirmed several major tenets of the pending proposal, including many that break from ideas put forth by the Obama administration and House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass. Most notably, Dodd has said his proposal will include a consolidation of federal banking regulators, an idea that has been panned as politically untenable by Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and Frank."

Fed discussed exec pay with top bankers. NYT: "In 20-minute sessions, Fed officials told bankers that they might need to fundamentally reform their pay practices as the agency moved forward with a comprehensive review of 28 large financial institutions. Fed officials imposed a Feb. 1 deadline for them to submit a written plan of any changes, but urged them to begin the overhaul now as they considered bonuses for 2009 ... Some analysts questioned whether the meetings — and the Fed’s newfound focus on pay — were largely a public relations exercise ... "

Progressive Breakfast: Health Care Up, Climate Down?

Bill Scher — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 05:13:35 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day

Health Care Advancing, Bit By Bit

NYT offers optimistic update on health care legislation: "... President Obama’s arms-length strategy on health care appears to be paying dividends ... The bills have advanced further than many lawmakers expected. Five separate measures are now pared down to two. But the legislative progress has come at a price. In the absence of specific guidance from the White House, it has moved ahead in fits and starts. From here on, the challenges will only grow more difficult ... In the House, where leaders have vowed to pass a bill by Nov. 11, a fight over abortion coverage could still imperil the legislation, and Mr. Obama could lose some votes from liberals upset that the bill includes a weakened 'public option,' ... Last week’s back-and-forth in the Senate was emblematic of a process that has at times seemed on the brink of anarchy."

HuffPost's Art Levine observes the House-Senate differences on taxing expansive insurance plans may be a major stumbling block: "abor unions, joined with other progressive organizations like Health Care for America Now, will be pushing to strengthen the legislation when the bills come to floor votes, but they're also focusing their efforts on ensuring that midde-class families and union members aren't slammed by a whopping 40% tax on insurers offering so-called Cadillac plans."

E.J. Dionne notes incremental, immediate reforms will have the biggest political impact in 2010: "...since most of the changes don't become effective until 2013, the next few years will be a time of uncertainties and unknowns. Citizens typically want to know what's in this for them, and what they'll get right now. That's why the most important document House Democrats released when they unveiled their bill last week was a list of 14 benefits that would be created immediately. These include insurance reforms to ban lifetime limits on coverage and an end to 'rescissions,' under which insurers abruptly nullify patients' policies after they file claims. One of the most popular reforms in the bill -- barring insurers from denying coverage to those with pre-existing conditions -- wouldn't take effect until later. So the House bill creates an interim high-risk pool to help those who need coverage in the meantime. There are also particular benefits for Medicare recipients, including an immediate reduction in drug costs, and a very popular provision that would allow parents to keep their children on the family health plan through age 26. Especially important are new investments in community health centers and in efforts to increase the number of primary care doctors."

Sen. Snowe tells AP he "trigger" proposal doesn't have the votes to pass, won't bother introducing it. (via FDL)

Change.org's Tim Foley notes the House health care bill cuts the deficit more "than the Senate Finance Committee bill."

Senate Climate Bill Faces Committee Debate This Week

W. Post delivers a pessimistic update on Senate climate bill before tomorrow's committee debate: "With Democrats deeply divided on the issue, unless some Republican lawmakers risk the backlash for signing on to the legislation, there is almost no hope for passage ... Democratic leaders, with the support of the Obama administration, are trying to sway at least half a dozen Republicans by offering amendments to speed along their top priority: building nuclear power plants ... it remains unclear whether that approach will hold currency in the current era of political polarization."

CQ reports Sen. Stabenow looking to advance agricultural interests in climate bill offset program: "The two-term Democrat has been negotiating closely with farm groups and the bill’s sponsors, John Kerry, D-Mass., and Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., to craft language that favors farmers and can win support from colleagues representing rural regions ... Stabenow envisions Michigan cashing in on an offset program. The state has many forests, which release carbon when cut down. Landowners could earn offset payments by keeping the forests intact. The senator even envisions ways for Michigan’s economically depressed cities to generate cash from a carbon offset program ... Boxer said flatly: 'She’ll write the agriculture title.' But it’s not clear that Agriculture Chairwoman Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., agrees ... [Farm groups] want the Agriculture Department — which is likely to be more sympathetic to farmers’ interests — to oversee a farm offsets program instead of the EPA. Environmentalists say this could undercut the program’s value as a conservation tool. ... An early draft of Stabenow’s legislation aims to straddle the agency line, giving the Agriculture Department chief jurisdiction of the program while creating a consultation role for the EPA and establishing a scientific panel to evaluate the environmental integrity of offset projects."

Al Gore predicts Obama will go to Copenhagen next month, reports EnviroKnow.

Climate Progress praises Al Gore's latest climate book: "a must-read book for those who want a primer on all the key solutions countries will be considering at Copenhagen."

Texas 600-megawatt wind farm creates more than 6 times the number of Chinese jobs than US jobs. NYT's Green Inc.: " The total cost of the project, which was brokered in part by the U.S. Renewable Energy Group, an American private equity company, was estimated at $1.5 billion. At an event after the announcement in Washington on Thursday, Cappy McGarr, a managing partner at the company, was beaming. 'This planned $1.5 billion investment in wind energy will spur tremendous growth in the renewable energy sector,' Mr. McGarr was quoted in a news release as saying, 'and directly create hundreds of high-paying American jobs.' ... The group’s calculations last week put the number of American jobs at a little more than 300 — most of them temporary construction jobs, along with about 30 permanent positions once the wind farm is operating. Mr. McGarr told The Wall Street Journal that more than 2,000 Chinese jobs would be created by the deal. That, along with the fact that the project was hoping to secure 30 percent, or $450 million, of its financing from U.S. stimulus funds, was enough to send tempers flaring."

Goldman Sachs Quietly Behind Subprime Housing Crisis

McClatchy uncovers Goldman Sachs secretive role in foreclosing on subprime mortgage homeowners: "Goldman spent years buying hundreds of thousands of subprime mortgages, many of them from some of the more unsavory lenders in the business, and packaging them into high-yield bonds. Now that the bottom has fallen out of that market, Goldman finds itself in a different role: as the big banker that takes homes away from folks such as the Beckers. The couple alleges that Goldman declined for three years to confirm their suspicions that it had bought their mortgages from a subprime lender, even after they wrote to Goldman's then-Chief Executive Henry Paulson — later U.S. Treasury secretary — in 2003. Unable to identify a lender, the couple could neither capitalize on a mortgage hardship provision that would allow them to defer some payments, nor on a state law enabling them to offset their debt against separate, investment-related claims against Goldman."

GOP sees fresh opening to end TARP. Politico: "...Republicans are moving to use yesterday’s bankruptcy filing by business lender CIT to score political points against TARP -- which Senate Republicans are pushing to end with an amendment to unemployment benefits legislation this week. House Financial Services ranking Republican Spencer Bachus (R-Ala.) said in a statement that CIT’s filing 'highlights the folly of a legislative proposal that makes the Federal Reserve the unchallenged arbiter of systemic risk, capital adequacy, and financial stability.'"

We Can Not Afford Not Passing More Stimulus

Krugman sounds the alarm: "Suppose that the economy were to keep growing at 3.5 percent. If that happened, unemployment would eventually start falling — but very, very slowly. The experience of the Clinton era, when the economy grew at an average rate of 3.7 percent for eight years (did you know that?) suggests that at current growth rates we’d be lucky to see the unemployment rate fall by half a percentage point per year, meaning that it would take a decade to return to something like full employment. Worse yet, it’s far from clear that growth will continue at this rate. The effects of the stimulus will build over time — it’s still likely to create or save a total of around three million jobs — but its peak impact on the growth of G.D.P. (as opposed to its level) is already behind us. Solid growth will continue only if private spending takes up the baton as the effect of the stimulus fades. And so far there’s no sign that this is happening. So the government needs to do much more. Unfortunately, the political prospects for further action aren’t good."

American Prospect's Jake Blumgart reports ME and WA may pass anti-tax anti-stimulative initiatives tomorrow that will gut state government services: "TABOR bills are designed to restrict government spending by capping taxes at the previous year's levels, and allowing them to grow only in relation to population plus inflation. This idea can be problematic in boom years, but critics fear it would be disastrous now, when state and local budgets have already been cut to the marrow. If TABOR passes in Maine or Washington, the states would have to cap their budget at the 2010 revenue baseline. If the recession continues eating into revenues, the TABOR cap would only continue dropping, forcing governments to cut more programs. If the economy improves, Maine and Washington would still be trapped by the previous year's spending limit -- in this case, the trough of the worst recession in a generation. Essentially, both states -- along with every county and city within them -- would be locked into recession-era spending. 'TABOR would make it impossible for either state to ever recover any of the public services that were cut during this recession,' says Iris J. Lav, senior adviser for state fiscal policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. 'In a recession, revenues drop. When revenues drop under TABOR the inflation and population allowances are applied to those reduced revenues, you don't get to go back to your previous base.'"

Fed rate decision Wed., unemployment numbers Fri. notes W. Post.

Possible positive manufacturing news. Bloomberg: "Factories in the U.S. probably grew at a faster pace, while the number of people signing contracts to buy houses showed no improvement, signaling a shift to manufacturing as the driver of the expansion, economists said before reports today ... 'Manufacturing is back in expansion territory on a sustained basis,' said Adam York, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina."