Praying For A Third party

I see that people are beginning to be converted to the idea that the Religious Right might actually break from the GOP this cycle based, at least in part, on this reporting [1] by Michael Sherer in Salon. It's fascinating stuff, and he's obviously got some great sources. But I think it's a grave mistake to use Richard Viguerie as any guide as to the real thinking or strategy on the right. He is a Big Conman from way back as my colleague Perlstein [2] has amply documented.

I'm not suggesting that the Religious Right leadership isn't very unhappy that the Republicans find themselves having to fight for swing voters this time and are, therefore, contemplating nominating a candidate who isn't a true conservative creature in the Southern, white evangelical mode. Of course they are. They are no longer the darlings of the media or the party and will have to fight for their place at the table like any other constituency. I'm sure that's very demoralizing.

But they are very experienced political bosses and they are in politics for the long run. It's possible, of course, that they have completely lost their bearings and will make some sort of suicidal third party run, risking that they will show for all to see just how little clout they actually have. Politicians are often overtaken by ego and arrogance and make big mistakes, as we have so amply seen in recent years. But assuming that they haven't lost their moorings completely, it is far more likely, as John Stokes impressively laid out here [3], that they know the Republicans are going to lose this election and are planning for the future.

Viguerie especially plays the long game. He has played it so often that we know this caterwauling about being betrayed by the GOP is a schtick he uses for fundraising and increasing the lucrative sense of victimization that so animates the far right. He knows better than anyone that losing is sometimes better for business than winning. Two steps forward one step back is an excellent way to keep his people nervous --- and generous.

This insightful article by Adele Stan in The American Prospect lays out what I think is the likeliest strategy among these Conservative Religious pooh-bahs. They've been here before: [4]

...Dobson and his ilk, who, despite their threat, are far less likely to walk out of the Republican Party than they are to force a religious-right agenda on a mainstream candidate like Giuliani, just as they did with Bob Dole in 1996.

The outcome of the radical-right platform that Dole was saddled with -- and a consequently right-wing, televised national convention -- was a resounding loss for the Republican Party, but a victory for the right.

A calculation had been made that then-President Bill Clinton was virtually unbeatable, as New Right architect Paul Weyrich revealed in the double-super-secret-background speech he delivered before the Council on National Policy (CNP) on the eve of the Republican Convention. In 2008, the right could simultaneously accept Giuliani as the G.O.P. candidate while deliberately wounding him so as to make his election improbable.

In gaining control of the platform and convention agenda by threatening to bolt the party in 1996, the right positioned itself strongly for the next contest. George W. Bush did not have to be led to the religious right; nor did any of the other Republican candidates in 2000. They knew the score; they played ball from the outset.

Right-wing leaders may find themselves considering a similar scenario today. Should Giuliani become the G.O.P. nominee, the religious right will seek to exact its pound of flesh, even if it means that the Democrats (yes, even the other Clinton), win the presidency. The betting could be that whomever wins the White House in 2008, whether Republican or Democrat, stands an excellent chance of being a one-termer, what with the economy on the verge of tanking and the war an intractable mess. Add in one good natural disaster, and the reins of power could prove slippery. Let a liberal woman preside over the mess, perhaps the thinking goes, and you could enjoy a subsequent 16 years of religious-right, male leadership after her four years run out.

God help us.

History never repeats itself exactly, but politicians are always fighting the last war and these religious right warriors may very well see this as a winning formula. It certainly worked the last time.

I suspect that no matter what they may think, they will never have the political clout they had in 2000 again. But they are part of the landscape for good --- as long as they never actually prove they can't actually move large numbers of votes, which is what a third party run might very well do. Why risk it?

I think they're sticking. They are a lot of things, but dumb isn't one of them.