OurFuture.org Blogs: Bill Scher

Progressive Breakfast: Fed Audit Clears Committee

Bill Scher — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 07:07:56 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day.

Paul-Grayson Fed Audit Plan Clears Committee

NYT on House committee vote repudiating Fed: "Mr. Paul, a libertarian Republican who has called for abolishing the Fed entirely, has introduced a version of his bill in every session of Congress since the early 1980s and never made any progress. But the Fed’s trillion-dollar efforts to bail out major banks and rescue the financial system provoked a popular firestorm that ignited both right-wing Republicans and left-wing Democrats. Mr. Paul’s amendment would instruct the Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress, to carry out audits of all the Fed’s operations. Those include an array of emergency lending programs, bailouts of giant financial institutions, dealings with foreign central banks and the central bank’s efforts to drive down interest rates by intervening in bond markets. Mr. Frank had already agreed that the G.A.O. should be authorized to audit all of the Fed’s rescue programs, but he had wanted to wall off the Fed’s more basic job of setting interest rates to steer the economy."

Vote on overall financial reform package stalled by Black Caucus members demanding more action on economy. The Hill: "Frank delayed the panel’s final vote after Congressional Black Caucus members said they would withhold their votes. 'It has nothing to do with the underlying bill,' said Steve Adamske, Frank’s spokesman. 'It has to do with larger economic issues with the African American community.'"

W. Post adds: "Congressional aides said the [CBC's] concerns are similar to those of the Democratic Party's liberal wing. Caucus members are pushing for legislation that would directly lead to new jobs by providing tax benefits, for example, that would provide incentives for home renovations and funding for new infrastructure projects. They also want to extend health-care and unemployment benefits."

Shelby rips Dodd financial reform bill. CQ: "Shelby and other Republican panel members said Dodd’s bill would preserve through law the practice of rescuing companies deemed 'too big to fail,' rather than end it ... Taking into consideration the Republican concerns, Dodd offered to give his panel members more time to fashion a bipartisan bill. He told his colleagues that they should be prepared to work 'virtually around the clock' into next week to iron out problem areas, but that he would not set a deadline on when to proceed with the bill."

Geithner tells Congress of plans to use leftover TARP funds for deficit reduction, while facing calls to resign. AP: "'We are winding it down and will close it as soon as we can,' Mr. Geithner said of the $700 billion bailout fund ... Mr. Geithner said 'substantial resources' remaining in the fund would be used to pay down the national debt ... While pledging to end TARP as quickly as possible, Mr. Geithner also said the administration did not want to repeat the mistake of other countries by ending government support too fast and derailing a fledgling economic recovery. But Representative Kevin Brady, a Republican from Texas, said the economy was such a mess that Mr. Geithner, as the Obama administration’s chief economic spokesman, should resign immediately."

Pelosi pushes international tax of financial transactions. Reuters: "Any tax imposed on financial transactions would have to take effect internationally to keep Wall Street jobs and related business from moving overseas, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said ... support is tepid among key legislators, especially those from the New York region who worry that finance jobs could disappear if the tax drives trading activity overseas."

White House stimulus watchdog notes imperfect local reporting will both understate and overstate job creation. NYT: "The 640,000 figure, announced by the White House with some fanfare last month, came from reports filed by recipients of the stimulus money, many of which have been shown to be inaccurate or overstated since they were made public. But the watchdog, Earl E. Devaney ... said that it was also possible that the figure understated how many jobs were affected. Up to 10 percent of the recipients had not filed the required reports showing how many jobs they had created or saved, he said." ALSO: White House blog posts "reality check."

President renews prospects of Korea trade deal. NYT: "Mr. Obama and the president of South Korea, Lee Myung-bak, both declared their desire to renegotiate elements of the agreement and to have both countries ratify it as soon as possible ... Democrats from big manufacturing states were already accusing the president of emulating his Republican predecessor and undermining American workers ... [Rep. Sander] Levin has warned the trade deal had no chance of passage unless South Korea agreed to make reductions in import restrictions. But he welcomed Mr. Lee’s apparent willingness to re-open those discussions."

Senate Hopeful To Clear First Procedural Hurdle Tomorrow

Senate expected to have 60 votes to begin health care debate Saturday. NYT: "After getting a look at the contents of the $848 billion legislative package unveiled by Mr. Reid on Wednesday, Democrats were increasingly confident they would be successful on the first crucial vote. That confidence was in part due to Mr. Reid’s shaping elements of his bill to appeal to Ms. Landrieu as well as to two other Democratic holdouts, Senators Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Ben Nelson of Nebraska."

Sen. Olympia Snowe looking to weaken employer mandate, public option. W. Post: "...Snowe said she is not happy with Reid's package, and has informed him that he will not have her vote Saturday. But Snowe said she would seek to amend the measure to lighten the financial burden it would place on small businesses whose workers received federal subsidies to buy insurance. She is also pressing for a trigger approach to the public option that would make it available only in states where private firms did not develop broadly affordable policies."

Union leaders remain opposed to tax on expansive insurance plans. LA Times: "...the Senate bill also includes the 40% excise tax on companies that offer high-end insurance plans -- those that cost $8,500 in annual premiums for individuals and $23,000 for families. Proponents argue that would not just raise revenues but also curb costs by discouraging companies from offering expensive plans ... critics warned it would not hit just luxury plans, but also those for middle-class workers whose premium costs are high because they live in high-cost states. A recent study by the Commonwealth Fund projected that the average premium for family coverage in 2015 would be nearly $20,000 in high-cost states. To address those concerns, the Senate bill sets the threshold $3,000 above that for certain states and for plans that cover workers in high-risk professions. Richard Trumka, president of the AFL-CIO, said that was a step in the right direction, but that labor would seek to kill the provision. 'We continue to believe that a tax on working families' benefits is the wrong way to finance healthcare,' he said."

White House squarely in support of insurance tax. WH budget director pens W. Post op-ed: "...will do more than help pay for reform. It also will curtail the growth of private health insurance premiums..."

CBPP largely praises Senate bill. TPMDC: "'The new Senate health bill marks a major step toward comprehensive, fiscally responsible health reform,' said executive director Robert Greenstein. 'It would extend health insurance coverage to 31 million Americans who lack it, reduce the budget deficit, and put long-term downward pressure on health care costs.'" CBPP had been particularly critical of the 'free-rider' employer mandate provision in the Finance bill, which Reid has rectified. Greenstein says the main problem with the bill now is its affordability (or lack thereof) for working-class Americans."

Some business groups oppose, but conflicted on strategy. WSJ: "Several industry groups are banding together to ask Congress to scrap the current bills and start from scratch on a health overhaul. They are stepping up television advertising against Democrats' proposals. The problem for employers is they may lack the power to kill the bill, which is why some are hedging their bets by negotiating on provisions they think they still have a chance of changing ...

Catholic bishops group lambastes Senate bill abortion language: "At the White House on Thursday, health reform director Nancy Ann DeParle praised Reid's effort to find a compromise on abortion ... But Richard Doerflinger, associate director of the bishops' conference Secretariat of Pro-Life Activities, said Reid's 'is actually the worst bill we've seen so far on the life issues.'"

House conservatives flip-flop on fixing Medicare reimbursements to doctors, as bill passes. The Treatment's Suzy Khimm: "The majority of House Republicans opposed the Democrats’ $210 billion physician payment bill--which passed this afternoon on a 243-183 vote--accusing the legislation of increasing the deficit by relying on federal borrowing through Medicare to pay for itself. ... But it was only four months ago that Ways and Means Republicans voted for an amendment that’s nearly identical to the bill being proposed today..."

Pre-Copenhagen International Jockeying Begins

Nations begin laying down markers on emission cuts in advance of Copenhagen. NYT: "...a rapid-fire succession of countries are unveiling national plans that serve as opening bids for reining in heat-trapping emissions ... 'We now have offers of targets from all industrialized countries except the United States,' [UN climate chief Yvo] de Boer said ... [US climate negotiator Todd Stern] noted that bills pending in Congress involved cuts of around 17 percent in emissions by 2020, increasing to much deeper cuts by 2030 ... South Korea said it would cut emissions by 30 percent from 'business as usual' by 2020. Russia’s president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, said his country would try to reduce emissions by 25 percent by then, instead of 15 percent as announced earlier. Last week, Brazil promised reductions of about 40 percent below current projections by 2020. The recent announcements are a mix of aspirations, good intentions and negotiating tactics. In most cases there is no certainty that the targets are politically or scientifically plausible."

Politico assesses Sen. John McCain's flip-flop from climate bill proponent to opponent: "Now the Arizona Republican is more likely to repeat GOP talking points on cap and trade than to help usher the bill through the thorny politics of the Senate. ... Former aides are mystified by what they see as a retreat on the issue, given McCain’s long history of leadership on climate legislation."

Progressive Breakfast: One More Deficit Cutting Health Care Bill

Bill Scher — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 07:05:22 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day

Senate Health Care Bill Cuts Deficit

Senate bill will cut the deficit in each of the next two decades projects CBO. Bloomberg: "[The bill] cleared a major hurdle when the Congressional Budget Office said it would cut the federal budget deficit by $127 billion in the first decade [and] by $650 billion in the second decade..."

W. Post on Senate Dem reaction: "The legislation received a positive response from across the Democratic spectrum. 'This is the bill that we've been fighting for,' said Sen. Sherrod Brown (Ohio), a liberal who pressed Reid to revive the public option. Sen. Kent Conrad (N.D.), the budget chairman and a leading Democratic fiscal hawk, said after a briefing on the bill, 'I was very impressed by what Senator Reid has done.'"

Reid making inroads with Dem holdouts. CQ: "Landrieu and Nelson signaled they were warming to Reid’s proposal after he huddled earlier with them and Lincoln ... 'I would say I’m at neutral' on the [first] critical procedural vote, [Landrieu] said after her meeting with Reid. A day earlier, she said she was 'leaning no' ... [Nelson said] he still needed to study the proposal before he deciding whether to vote to limit debate on a motion to proceed ... Lincoln said after her meeting in Reid’s office that she remained undecided about her vote on proceeding to the bill."

Reid told holdouts he is keeping simple majority vote on the table, reports TPMDC: "Reid let three of his party's key skeptics know that if they join Republicans at any stage of the process to block the bill, he still retains the option of passing major parts of it through the filibuster proof budget reconciliation process ... Nelson said, 'he's not threatening that, but anybody can conclude that if you don't move something on to the floor, that is one of the possibilities.'"

W. Post on House-Senate differences: "The House version would require all but the smallest businesses to offer insurance, while the Senate measure would merely fine companies for not offering affordable coverage ... while the House would impose a 5.4 percent surtax on income over $500,000 for individuals and $1 million for families, the Senate would rely primarily on a new tax on high-cost insurance policies that has been hugely unpopular among House members ... Reid would impose the 40 percent tax on fewer policies [then the Senate Finance cmte version], raising the threshold to $8,500 for individuals and $23,000 for family coverage. That change required him to come up with about $60 billion in additional revenue, most of which would come from raising the Medicare payroll tax from 1.45 percent to 1.95 percent on individual income over $200,000 and household income over $250,000. Reid is also proposing a new 5 percent tax on elective cosmetic surgery."

Wonk Room's Igor Volsky explains Reid's moderate abortion compromise: "Federal dollars can only be used to pay for abortions when the pregnancy threatens the life of the mother or results from rape or incest; private premiums must be used to pay for any other type of abortion, including those for health reasons. Each plan in Exchange will decide whether to cover additional abortion services and at least one plan in each market must offer abortion services and one plan must not. In the public option, the Secretary can cover abortion only if the procedure is financed with private funds."

Politico on what reforms come early, and late: "The Senate bill pushes back implementation of major parts of the reform to 2014 -- a change from 2013 under the Finance Committee bill. This is bad news for lawmakers who will need to explain to constituents why the elements that have attracted the most attention -- the public plan, the Medicaid expansion and the insurance exchanges -- won't be available for four years ... Aware of the political pitfalls, the Senate Democratic leadership compiled a list of early 'deliverables' [including] '$5 billion in immediate federal support for a new program to provide affordable coverage to uninsured Americans with pre-existing conditions ... 'reduce the size of the “donut hole” by raising the ceiling on the initial coverage period by $500 in 2010.'"

W. Post's Ezra Klein worries about the level of subsidies but Change.org's Tim Foley is impressed: "...the tax credits to help subsidize the cost of their premiums [are] much more generous than the previous Senate Finance bill, more generous than the previous Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions bill and yes, even more generous than the House bill! The credits are offered on a sliding scale based on income, and go all the way up to 400% of the poverty line (about $88,000 for a family of 4) -- much better than the Finance bill and equivalent to the HELP and House bills. On the low end, individuals and families will only need to pay 2.8% of their income on premiums for a comprehensive plan. On the high end, it’s 9.8% -- an improvement over the 12% maximum in the House bill ... Who saw that coming? I’ll tell you who -- Olympia Snowe. One of her main critiques of the Finance bill she helped put together was that it wasn’t doing enough for families above $66,000, who received no subsidy at all. I think Harry Reid got her attention!"

TPMDC on the next procedural steps: "[Today], Reid will file for cloture on the motion to proceed, which will set off 30 hours of debate before the cloture vote itself is held, likely on Saturday. That could set off yet another delay before the motion to proceed is actually passed, which could take until Monday. If that happens, the debate on the bill--including a reading of its 2000+ pages, won't likely begin in earnest until after Thanksgiving. Got that all? Good."

House to investigate Big Pharma price gouging. CQ: "House Democrats have ordered an investigation into recent price increases by drug manufacturers, out of suspicion that the increases are an attempt to maximize profits ahead of potential price controls included in a health care overhaul."

Senate Conservatives Protect Credit Card Rate Gouging

FDL's David Dayen on procedural move blocking bill to stop dramatic rate hike before previously passed reforms are implemented. "...Republicans objected to a motion by Chris Dodd (D-CT) to immediately take up a bill to move up the effective date on the CARD Act ... the banksters have been gouging their customers one last time, Sen. Dodd wanted to stop them from doing that, and Republicans objected. The bill, which has already passed the House, could come up under regular order in the future, but Republicans basically engaged in a needless delay so credit card companies could wring some more profits from their customers."

Digby sees a political opening: "If Democrats can't make something out of this they deserve to lose their majority and be sued for political malpractice ... These people are sticking up for credit card companies who are gouging their customers during the holidays in the middle of a recession! What do they have to do to provoke some outrage from the Democrats, gun down Tiny Tim?"

Too-Big-To Fail Reform Passes Key Vote, Fed Audit Plan Up Today

The Hill on committee approval of new power to break up big banks. "A key House panel voted on Wednesday to give the federal government broad new powers that could be used to break up large financial firms before they fail. The House Financial Services Committee voted 38-29 to support an amendment sponsored by Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.) that drew strong objections from Republicans and wariness from some centrist Democrats ... The Kanjorski measure requires federal regulators to look closely at the 50 largest financial firms by assets and determine whether their size, scope, interconnectedness and other factors need additional regulation. Regulators would then be able to impose stricter regulations, limit a firm’s ability to merge and also possibly sell or divest parts of the firm ... it faces an uncertain future with the full House and Senate."

Bloomberg reports: "[House Financial Services Committee] members will vote on a Democratic proposal to retain a ban on audits of Fed interest-rate decisions. Approval would deal a blow to Representative Ron Paul, the Texas Republican who introduced a bill with 300 cosponsors that would allow audits of interest-rate decisions, a step Bernanke opposes ... The amendment to be offered by Watt ... would limit Government Accountability Office audits of Fed emergency-loan programs to their operations, excluding decisions and internal talks about the facilities. Identities of borrowers may be released a year after the programs end. Watt’s plan has more limits than a proposal unveiled last week by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd. Paul and Representative Alan Grayson, a Florida Democrat, have drafted a competing measure for broader Fed audits, which would exclude only any unreleased transcripts or minutes of Fed policy meetings."

Frank to close foreign currency derivatives loophole reports HuffPost.

Four bankrupted companies slashed employee retirement benefits, granted nearly $50M in retirement benefits to executives. USA Today: "Top executives at four companies that jettisoned their employee pension plans received $49.5 million in retirement and severance benefits in the years before the companies filed for bankruptcy, while retirees saw their benefits cut by as much as two thirds, congressional investigators conclude in a report to be released today. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) reports that pensions at the companies, United Airlines, US Airways, Polaroid and Reliance Insurance, were underfunded by more than $11 billion when the companies turned them over to a government-backed insurance fund. The report says executives at those four companies and six others that abandoned their pension plans took in a total of $350 million in pay and perks in the years leading up to the bankruptcies."

Jobs Bill Deliberations

CQ reports on Senate Dem brainstorming on possible jobs bill: "Senators at a Wednesday meeting attended by about 20 members said the ideas mentioned most often were funding infrastructure projects, boosting small-business lending using money remaining in the Troubled Asset Relief Program and funding energy efficiency programs."

Gas tax dispute behind transportation bill standoff. GreenWire: "[Sen. Boxer] and six other committee leaders and ranking members -- including EPW Committee ranking member James Inhofe (R-Okla.) -- relented on their ongoing effort to punt the next multiyear highway and transit bill into 2011 and instead called for a shorter, six-month extension that would continue current federal spending until June 2010 ... For most of the summer, [Rep. James] Oberstar had threatened to block any stopgap transportation measure as a way to pressure lawmakers to focus on his six-year, $500 billion proposal. However, when it became apparent that his bill would not see floor time before the end of September he backed down and instead pushed a three-month extension of the law through the House. But the Senate never signed off on the plan, and Oberstar has since refused to give any additional ground in the extension debate ... [Boxer described] the House philosophy as: 'Let's just bring it to a crisis point, then we'll go double the gas tax and solve the whole problem.' Boxer, who also opposes a near-term gas tax hike, said imposing one would be nearly impossible."

Los Angeles seeking fed help on $20B transit initiative: "The mayor said he’ll seek a funding advance from the U.S. government against future local sales tax revenue, along with federal grant money ... Work on the rail lines would create at least 210,000 jobs..."

Moderates Look To Restrict Scope of Carbon Cap

Some senators looking at severely narrow climate bill, but lead negotiator Kerry rejects. GreenWire: "...a small bipartisan faction of Senate moderates is examining the idea of passing a bill that deals only with the heat-trapping emissions from power plants ... aimed at about a third of annual U.S. greenhouse gas emissions ... [Kerry said] he is not planning to write a bill that goes after only power plants. That, he said, would not be a political winner, anyway. 'The problem is you lose countless numbers of entities ... It becomes far more expensive, and they don't get the help you get the other way. You get no transitional cost help that way, so it becomes more expensive. And in fact, you lose three-quarters of the support for the legislation.'"

Progressive Breakfast: Senate Health Care Bill Today (?)

Bill Scher — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 07:03:25 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day

Senate Bill And CBO Estimate Today (Really, Maybe, We Think)

Reid to show bill to fellow Senators at 5 PM ET. Politico: "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will present the health care reform bill to Democratic senators at a special caucus meeting scheduled for 5 p.m. Wednesday, his spokesman said Tuesday night. Notice of the meeting went out to Democratic Senate offices Tuesday night, signaling the long wait for the merged bill is about to end."

Ezra Klein gets a morning scoop: "According to sources in the leadership's office, Harry Reid has the CBO's estimate of the merged Senate bill in hand and is 'very pleased' with the numbers. The rest of the world should get a look at it sometime today."

It needs 60. Senate Dems reject simple majority vote using budget rules. CQ: "Senate Democrats have abandoned plans to use a fast-track parliamentary strategy to avert a threatened Republican filibuster and pass a health care overhaul — a signal that they are considering major policy concessions to moderates. The most significant of these could be restructuring or dropping altogether [the] public option ... One possible fallback is a proposal by Thomas R. Carper, D-Del., to create a government-sanctioned insurance plan that would be available only in states deemed to lack affordable private insurance plans."

Swampland's Jay Newton-Small details Carper's trigger compromise: "The day the exchange is created states would have to meet an affordability test. Those that fail would be forced to compete with a non-profit co-op, based off of Senator Kent Conrad's original idea. The co-op board would be appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. There would be an angel investment footed by the taxpayers to be eventually repaid and reserves set to protect against taxpayer bailouts. That said, the details of the plan are still sketchy: such as what defines the affordability trigger (TBD 'by people smarter than me,' Carper said), how much will be needed in seed money, whether the Department of Health and Human Services should be involved and if states could eventually leave the co-op if they met certain qualifications. But, Carper argued, the plan is stronger than his previous suggestion – where states could elect to opt-in to a national government-run public plan. 'Opt-in suggests it's voluntarily but with the hammer approach those states would have to opt-in on day one,' he said."

FDL's Jon Walker lambastes Carper: "it seems Carper has completely reinvented (cribbed? copied?) Snowe’s trigger proposal, and must be hoping no one notices ... These two trigger proposals are essentially identical—and identically worthless."

NYT notes that Sens. Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln and Mary Landrieu won't commit to preventing filibuster. Bloomberg notes Sen. Ron Wyden may hold out if there's no public option.

Rep. Stupak threatens to sink bill if his anti-abortion amendment is stripped out.

W. Post speculates on Reid's tax provisions: "To scale back a plan to tax high-cost insurance policies, an idea that is highly unpopular among labor unions, Reid is expected to propose an increase in the Medicare payroll tax for families earning more than $250,000 a year. The provision would be expected to generate about $50 billion over the next 10 years. The extra revenue would allow Reid to reduce the number of people who would be hit by a new 40 percent tax on the most expensive insurance policies."

Varying Assessments As Obama Leaves China

McClatchy analysis laments no new results on currency impasse: "...Chinese and American leaders diplomatically disagreed over China's policy of fixing the value of its currency against the dollar ... To critics back home, it all sounded like pronouncements made during the George W. Bush and Clinton administrations. Trade groups that feel harmed by China's fixed-exchange rate wanted action. Instead, they got reassurance that China eventually will let markets set the yuan's value."

Grist's Jake Schmidt sees positives on climate front: " These were subtle, but important changes in the Chinese position that has occurred over the last year. Having President Obama talking about global warming with China on such frequency and at such a high-level has definitely helped with this shift ... they did stress that [any intermediate Copenhagen] agreement could be more than just a mere piece of paper that has no meaning ... Both countries will take mitigation commitments and “stand behind them” ... Both countries actions to reduce emissions will be fully transparent."

W. Post's Harold Meyerson hold free-traders accountable for China predictions 10 years ago: "...after U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshevsky reached an agreement with her Chinese counterpart 10 years ago this week on normalizing trade relations, an intense debate took place in Congress and in the nation. U.S. business leaders, members of the Clinton administration, a majority of congressional Republicans and a minority of congressional Democrats all argued that the deal was a win for the American people ... [But the] China that has emerged since trade relations were normalized has become not just an economic giant but the planet's leading protectionist power ... Our economic elites wanted the higher profits that came with cheaper Chinese labor. They prevailed, and today we are floundering to clean up their mess."

Congress Putting Together Jobs Bill

CQ reports House working to iron out differences quickly: "Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer said Tuesday that Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., asked committee chairmen to submit ideas for a bill that could pass the House by its target adjournment date of Dec. 18 ... But there are significant differences of opinion among House Democrats, particularly on how to pay for any job-creation package. And Senate Democrats, who have their own ideas for addressing the issue, will probably be occupied with a health care overhaul the rest of the year."

Jobs v. Deficit, Congress v. White House? The Hill on debate over TARP funds: "Congressional Democrats want struggling workers and homeowners to receive money from the $700 billion Wall Street bailout. That conflicts with the Obama administration’s idea of dedicating some of the money toward reducing the deficit ... 'Main Street’s most immediate concern is not deficits; it’s the economy and jobs,' [Rep. Pete] DeFazio said."

Progressive press WH on jobs. TPMDC: "Progressive groups representing millions of workers and minorities across the country assembled today to send a message to President Obama and Congress -- it's time to do more to create new jobs. The AFL-CIO, the NAACP and the National Council Of La Raza held a joint event today on what the groups called the 'worst crisis in America today' -- unemployment. Leaders of each group called on Washington to put other priorities aside and immediately begin pumping billions into job creation programs the groups say will target the worst-hit in the economic downturn."

Financial transaction tax considered by House to pay for jobs bill. The Hill: "The idea is attractive because it’s very small, likely 0.25 percent of each trade. And since Wall Street is perceived by many as having caused the economic slump, brokers have little political standing to try to stop it.
It also has the support of the nation’s largest labor union ... Small- and medium-sized investors would hardly notice a transaction tax, but major trading firms may see it as a significant threat to their profits."

W. Post defends WH on hiccups in stimulus stats: "It is exceedingly difficult for even the most conscientious government agency or contractor to calculate the jobs impact of a stimulus grant or contract. How can one know for sure whether a job would have been lost in the absence of stimulus money? If money helped cover someone's paycheck for only a few weeks or months, how should that be counted? If money has been allocated but will not be spent for several months, should its jobs impact be tallied now or later? A close examination of the stimulus reports suggests plenty of instances in which the number of created jobs is being understated, as some recipients of multiple millions of dollars report that they have yet to save or create a single job."

Victory In Texas Wind Farm Dispute

USA Today reports wind power companies seeking stimulus funds will build US turbine plant: "Companies planning a controversial wind farm in Texas that would seek millions in federal stimulus funds said Tuesday that they'd build a U.S. plant to make wind turbines and employ 1,000 people. The news follows criticism that the farm planned to use Chinese-made turbines and that too many federal stimulus dollars have gone to foreign-owned wind firms. The companies didn't say when the plant – to be one of the biggest in the U.S. for wind turbines – would be built or whether it would supply turbines to the Texas farm ... [Sen. Chuck] Schumer raised opposition to the wind grants earlier this month after the West Texas farm was announced and the Investigative Reporting Workshop at American University reported on the heavy flow of stimulus dollars to foreign wind firms. U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu, in a letter to Schumer dated Friday, defended the awards. He said the companies that supplied turbines to the funded farms had U.S. plants and that the farms are in the U.S., creating local installation jobs and tax revenue. He cited industry statistics that 53% of the value of turbine parts installed under the program were American-made."

"Cash For Caulkers" Building Momentum

NYT's David Leonhardt reports WH seriously considering "cash for caulkers" expansion of green stimulus for home weatherization: "The housing bust has idled contractors and construction workers, who could be put to work insulating homes and caulking air leaks. Many households, meanwhile, would save substantial money — not to mention help the climate — by weatherizing their homes, research by McKinsey & Company has shown. All in all, a cash-for-caulkers program seems like a promising part of the jobs program for 2010 that Mr. Obama has suggested he is planning. But I would also mention one point of caution: the details of any caulkers plan will matter enormously. Weatherizing a home, as I recently discovered, turns out to be a lot more complicated than buying a car ... Imagine, though, if the Energy Department put together a weatherization-for-dummies fact sheet and Mr. Obama began promoting it."

Calculated Risk praises: "There are many unemployed construction workers - so this would help with unemployment (a real jobs bill) - and weatherization would save the homeowners money over time."

Get Energy Smart Now intrigued, awaits details: "How much cash should go upfront? What percentages? What sort of controls over the program? How long to run this?

Senate Jockeying Around Climate Bill

Sen. Reid hopeful climate bill can pass in spring. Climate Progress: "The good news is that Reid sees this bill as part of the economic stimulus and jobs package the administration is putting together, which should increase the motivation to pass it."

The Hill reports coal-state Sen. Jay Rockefeller wants to push back into summer, if not farther "[Rockefeller] said climate legislation should not reach the floor before July of next year, putting the controversial bill on the schedule only months before Election Day ... This, however, may be a bid to push climate change legislation into 2011 ... Boxer noted, however, that Baucus told her he would mark up a climate change bill in the Finance Committee in January. The move suggests Baucus may be trying to lay down his legislative marker in the debate before it leaves him behind ... At the moment, Reid appears to be siding with Boxer on timing."

The Vine's Brad Plumer question's Baucus effort to weaken carbon cap: "Currently, the Senate cap-and-trade program aims to cut greenhouse-gas emissions 20 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. Senators like Max Baucus have asked for 14 percent or 17 percent. But here's a question: Would weakening the near-term targets really make the climate bill any cheaper? ... weakening the short-term cap—while keeping the target for 2050 in place—might actually do very little to budge carbon prices. That's because polluters are allowed to 'bank' permits and save them for the future..."

New GOP senator from Florida possible Yes vote. CQ: "[Sen. George] LeMieux worked on environmental issues as an aide to Gov. Charlie Crist, who appointed him to the Senate after fellow Republican Mel Martinez resigned. That background and his statements on environmental issues have led environmental groups to view LeMieux — along with Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Olympia J. Snowe of Maine — as one of the best bets to provide the Republican vote or votes that may be needed to cut off a filibuster of legislation that includes a cap-and-trade system for carbon emissions."

Sens. Lamar Alexander and Jim Webb introduce nuclear power bill. AFP: "Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) and Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), noting they cannot support the cap-and-trade climate bill now churning through the Senate, said their plan could cost $20 billion over 10 years. It would include $100 billion for carbon-free electricity loan guarantees, expected to chiefly benefit the U.S. nuclear industry." The Green Grok scoffs: "... this is not a climate mitigation bill. And, if passed, it probably won’t even do much to advance clean energy. History suggests that federal subsidies, by themselves, cannot effectively transform our energy infrastructure ... if they’re wrong [on nuclear], not only have they wasted gobs of taxpayer money, they have lost us time, discouraged private investment in other technologies by giving nuclear a competitive edge, and kept at bay a potential unfunded winner ... It’s just a wee bit ironic that conservative senators like Webb and Alexander find themselves promoting federal handouts instead of tapping market forces in the case of climate change."

Attempt To Block Fed Audit Bill

HuffPost's Ryan Grim reports on new bill to stop Paul-Grayson: "Rep. Mel Watt, a Democrat from North Carolina, has introduced an amendment intended as an alternative to the measure to audit the Federal Reserve introduced by Reps. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and Alan Grayson's (D-Fla.) . But instead of increasing transparency, as the amendment claims to do, Watt's measure would instead make the institution more opaque."

The News Of Copenhagen's Death Has Been Greatly Exaggerated

Bill Scher — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:41:38 -0800

The online version of Foreign Policy magazine currently blares the wildly premature headline "Who Killed Copenhagen? FP Plays The Blame Game." This apparently is what happens when a thoughtful if staid non-profit publication gets sold to a for-profit corporation -- in this case, The Slate Group division of The Washington Post Company. Instead of detached deep analysis, we get shoot-from-the-hip oversimplified headlines.

I don't know what exactly is going to happen at next month's international climate summit in Copenhagen, and certainly the narrowing of the summit's goals is not as good as being on the cusp of a long-term international agreement.

But if Copenhagen is "dead," that would means nothing can possibly be accomplished next month. That simply isn't true.

Everyone knows we have several chicken-and-egg problems when it comes to forging an broad international agreement: with the US, China and India all playing a frustrating no-you-go-first dance.

One way to overcome such a problem is with baby steps. Granted, the planet doesn't have a lot of time for a lot of baby steps. But there is path to success that doesn't require too many.

In the US, a tripartisan trio of Sens. John Kerry (D), Joe Lieberman (I) and Lindsey Graham (R) are working towards announcing compromise legislation, bringing together a carbon cap with increased offshore drilling and nuclear power. These are terms that -- pending on the details -- the White House, as well as most environmental organizations, are willing to accept.

If that happens before Copenhagen, the US can show that it is very close to passing comprehensive climate legislation, making it easier for the international community to forge an intermediary climate agreement that at least gets the world moving -- including major developing nations China and India -- on cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

Once it is clear that China and India are taking action, a chief excuse for skittish Senators will be put to rest, making it easier for the Senate to pass a tripartisan deal and reconcile it with the already passed House carbon cap.

And that can pave the way for a final global agreement in 2010.

Will it happen this way? I don't know. But surely that's the game plan, and it's a plausible one.

For the leaders of the Copenhagen summit to make a course correction in advance of the meeting was simply smart, hard-headed politics, not an act of suicide.

For Slate's Foreign Policy to declare otherwise is an act of journalistic suicide.

Progressive Breakfast: Currency On The Table

Bill Scher — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 07:09:31 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day

Obama Mentions Currency, Hu Doesn't

Obama presses China on currency manipulation. Bloomberg: "'I was pleased to note the Chinese commitment, made in past statements, to move toward a more market-oriented exchange rate over time,' Obama said during a joint appearance with Hu after a meeting in Beijing today. 'Doing so based on economic fundamentals would make an essential contribution to the global rebalancing effort.' ... Hu, in his remarks, made no mention of the yuan [currency] ... the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said today in Beijing that a stronger yuan would be in the interests of China and the world ... "

NYT analyzes: "The scripted interaction underscored the obstacles Mr. Obama faces ... It remained unclear whether the United States would make progress on several issues on this trip, including on the management of its tightly controlled currency..."

CBO Score of Senate Health Care Bill Today?

CQ reports CBO may release cost estimate today, kickstarting Senate floor debate: "The development could clear the way for a vote Nov. 20 on a procedural motion to allow the Senate to being debating its version, a senior Democratic aide said late Monday."

Senators press Reid to keep public option. NYT: "...a group of liberal Senate Democrats ... urged Mr. Reid not to back down ... Reid is still short at least 3 of the 60 votes he needs on a motion to bring the health care bill up for debate. An aide to Mr. Reid said that the majority leader remained committed to retaining the public plan ... [Sen. Baucus] said he believed that further compromise would be necessary on the public option..."

ABC/W. Post poll finds continued support for public option, opposition for overly restrictive Stupak amendment, concern about cost: "[The] poll shows Americans deeply divided over the proposals under consideration and majorities predicting higher costs ahead. But Republican opponents have done little better in rallying the public opposition to kill the reform effort. Americans continue to support key elements of the legislation, including a mandate that employers provide health insurance to their workers and access to a government-sponsored insurance plan for those people without insurance ... 61 percent say they support barring coverage for abortions for those receiving public subsidies, but if private funds were used to pay for abortion expenses, the numbers flipped. With segregated private money used to cover abortion procedures, 56 percent say insurance offered to those using government assistance should be able to include such coverage."

Sen. Ben Nelson softens anti-abortion stance. CNN: "[Nelson] now says he would be satisfied with the less restrictive language approved by the Senate Finance Committee ... Nelson said his position has been consistent, but said he misunderstood a reporter's question on the issue last week."

LA Times reports right-leaning Senate Dems resisting Reid on payroll tax increase on wealthiest: "Reid is meeting resistance from centrist Democrats who believe the tax on expensive insurance plans could rein in the growth of health costs overall, while a payroll tax hike would not."

FDL's Jon Walker raps Sen. Carper for pushing trigger compromise: "If Harry Reid chooses to betray the Democratic base by listening to Sen. Carper it will create a lot of anger among rank and file party members."

Ezra Klein raps conservatives who voted for budget-busting prescription drug bill, now preach fiscal austerity: "...the senators who voted for Medicare Part D and are still in the Senate are: Lamar Alexander, Max Baucus, Bob Bennett, Kit Bond, Jim Bunning, Tom Carper, Saxby Chambliss, Thad Cochran, Susan Collins, Kent Conrad, John Cornyn, Mike Crapo, Byron Dorgan, Mike Enzi, Dianne Feinstein, Chuck Grassley, Orrin Hatch, Kay Bailey Hutchinson, James Inhofe, Jon Kyl, Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln, Dick Lugar, Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski, Ben Nelson, Pat Roberts, Pete Sessions, Richard Shelby, Olympia Snowe, Arlen Specter, George Voinovich and Ron Wyden ... It's like watching arsonists calling the fire department reckless."

HCAN's Levana Layendecker has some suggestions of good economists for the Chamber of Commerce to hire: "They are looking for some help to fund a study that will show that health care reform is bad for the economy ... Luckily for them we already know of more than 300 respected economists and health care experts who signed on to a letter addressing health care reform and the economy. Unfortunately for the Chamber, here is what it says."

House Looks To Pass Jobs Bill Next Month

The Hill reviews the possible options for a House jobs bill: "The main idea for job creation is finding some sort of compromise on a highway-construction bill that Democrats have been haggling over for months. House Democrats have fought resistance in the Senate and at the White House for a massive, long-term expansion of the highway authorization bill. They haven’t been able to agree on how to raise the money for a $500 billion bill. One idea would be to do a shorter-term bill without a revenue stream, a Democratic aide said, adding to the deficit. Lawmakers are also discussing more small-business tax breaks intended to create new jobs. But other pieces being considered — extending unemployment benefits again, paying the health benefits of unemployed workers, providing aid to state Medicaid programs and extending popular tax breaks — might help the economy, but are less likely to chip away at the unemployment rate."

House Dem Caucus Chair Rep. John Larson lists ideas to CQ: "Larson mentioned funding for infrastructure projects House Democrats have been pushing, and Democratic aides said the House might also move extensions of tax policies set to expire at the end of the year. Among them are the research and development tax credit, incentives for biodiesel, an additional standard deduction for property taxes, accelerated depreciation for motorsports complexes and expensing of brownfields cleanup costs. Expiring business provisions are more likely to be extended than those affecting individual taxpayers. Extension of the business provisions would have an immediate impact on corporate planning and could affect quarterly earnings statements since companies cannot otherwise assume their extension. One Democratic lawmaker said there has also been talk about using money from the financial sector bailout to aid small businesses. Larson said Democratic leaders have not decided whether to move their jobs proposals separately or as a package."

AFL-CIO releases 5-point jobs plan, re-directing TARP funds : "1. Extend the lifeline for jobless workers ... for another 12 months ... 2. Rebuild America’s schools, roads and energy systems ... 3. Increase aid to state and local governments to maintain vital services ... 4. Fund jobs in our communities ... restoring our environment, providing child care and tutoring, cleaning up abandoned houses and more ... 5. Put TARP funds to work for Main Street."

Bernanke says job growth is "great concern," indicating interest rates should remain low. Bloomberg: "'Jobs are likely to remain scarce for some time, keeping households cautious about spending'” he said. While payrolls will increase as the economy recovers, unemployment 'likely will decline only slowly if economic growth remains moderate, as I expect.'"

Time reports that Build America Bonds, part of the stimulus, are working: "...the municipal-bond program, which provides a federal subsidy to help states and other local governments raise funds, looks to be one of the economic recovery effort's biggest successes ... The bonds have renewed and expanded investor interest in the muni-bond sector. And by getting money into the hands of cash-strapped local governments, the bond program has saved or even boosted jobs, stimulating the economy.

Apollo Alliance's Phil Angelides and OurFuture.org's Natasha Chart call for "Buy America" provisions for green stimulus funds to prevent shipping new green jobs offshore.

HuffPost quotes Rep. David Obey's concern over erroneous reporting of stimulus fund impact: "Credibility counts in government and stupid mistakes like this undermine it. We've got too many serious problems in this country to let that happen ... Whether the numbers are good news or bad news, I want the honest numbers and I want them now."

WH Stresses Deficit Reduction

Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel previews budget focus for Jan. State of the Union address. Bloomberg: "A plan for reducing America’s long- term federal budget deficits will be 'a key component' of President Barack Obama’s annual State of the Union address in January, according to White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel ... Emanuel predicted that even as the administration grapples with deficit reduction, Obama would succeed in winning congressional passage of key elements of what the president has called his 'new foundation' for the country. 'I think there’s no doubt they’ll achieve it,' Emanuel said. 'All three: health-care, financial and energy-policy reform.'"

Dean Baker assails right-leaning Dems threatening to rejecting raising the debt limit unless deficit-cutting commission is installed: "If the debt limit is not passed, then at some point the government will not be able to pay workers and contractors. It won't be able to send out Social Security checks or make payments for Medicaid and unemployment insurance to state governments. And, it will not be able to make interest payments on government bonds, effectively defaulting on the national debt. As a condition of allowing a bill to increase the debt limit to pass the Senate, the hostage-takers are demanding that Congress agree to establish a special commission to make recommendations for reducing the long-term budget deficit. This commission would be stacked with people who want to cut Social Security and Medicare. When the commission makes its report to Congress, which would include huge cuts for these programs along with some tax increases ... it could not be amended, debate would be limited, and there would not be the usual 60 votes required to bring the report to a vote in the Senate. In short, the deck would be stacked toward approving large cuts in ways that would not ordinarily be the case."

TARP Watchdog Criticizes Geithner Role in AIG Bailout

Bloomberg sums up hard-hitting TARP report: "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York 'severely limited' its ability to save taxpayer money on American International Group Inc.’s rescue by refusing to compel banks to take concessions, said a Treasury Department watchdog. The Fed didn’t use its 'considerable leverage' as regulator of several of AIG’s counterparties to force them to accept so-called haircuts on credit-default swaps, Neil Barofsky, special inspector for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, said ... 'These policy decisions came with a cost -- they led directly to a negotiating strategy with the counterparties that even then-New York Fed President Geithner acknowledged had little likelihood of success,' Barofsky said."

BofA, JP Morgan Chase, UBS sued for rigging derivatives trading. Bloomberg: "Bank of America Corp., UBS AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co. were sued by a California public utility over claims they rigged sales of municipal derivatives and shared illegal profits through kickbacks ... The allegations resemble those made by a U.S. grand jury in New York last month..."

Springtime for Climate?

CQ reports climate bill may be pushed back to spring. Sen. Kerry remains optimistic: "...the slow pace of health care overhaul legislation has stalled other Senate business. And once the health bill is done, financial regulatory legislation is next in line for the Senate’s attention. 'We’ll come to the floor in the near aftermath of financial reform,' Kerry said ... Kerry said it might be easier to establish the new market for allowances once the financial regulatory system is overhauled."

Obama and Hu pledge to act on climate. CNN: "The U.S. president said the two leaders want to accelerate the world toward a pact to cut greenhouse gases. The leaders did not offer a time frame, however.
'Our aim ... is not a partial accord or a political declaration,' Obama said, 'but rather an accord that covers all of the issues in the negotiations and one that has immediate operational affect. This kind of comprehensive agreement would be an important step forward in the effort to rally the world around a solution to our climate challenge.'"

German Chancellor will attend Copenhagen climate summit reports AFP.

Rahm Emanuel expresses WH support for nuclear power in any climate bill. Bloomberg quotes: "You can’t get from here to there on global warming if you don’t have a theory of the case as it relates to nuclear power ... We’re in the middle of negotiations now on the loan agreements as it relates to what the United States government can do to help build nuclear power plants ... And hopefully in short order you’ll see some announcements in that space."

Politico reviews difficulty of appeasing coal-state Senate Dems: "...while the coal industry and its backers keep chipping away at the Boxer bill, a weaker emissions target could be a deal breaker for liberal Democrats."

Progressive Breakfast: Obama in China

Bill Scher — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 06:45:57 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day

Currency, Trade, Climate Focus of China Trip

Time previews this week's US-China prez talks: "...the subject of 'rebalancing' will likely get top billing ... China's top leaders clearly agree with Washington that the country's consumers need to spend more. Pressure from Obama to speed that process along by, for example, continued improvements in China's social safety net, might be met with nods of approval. But Obama will only be able to press Beijing so hard. China's policymakers are still wedded to supporting the country's valuable export industries. Any suggestions from Obama that would result in a drastic shift of the economy away from exports and towards heavier reliance on domestic spending will be less welcome [and] economists doubt China's leaders will take drastic steps to reform its currency system anytime soon.

Newsweek tries to explain thinking of Chinese leadership: "Within Chinese government circles, explains [Brookings' David] Shambaugh, there is an escalating debate over whether the country should assume the role of a 'responsible big power' or just continue practicing the late Chinese strongman Deng Xiaoping's more veiled and ambiguous strategy of 'biding time, hiding capabilities, but doing some things.' Skeptics in the Beijing leadership believe China simply isn't ready to take on much greater global responsibilities—and yet 'some people want Beijing to overextend itself precisely so that Chinese growth will be stifled,' says Professor Yan [Xuetong]."

Obama touches on trade in China town hall: "...just look at how far we have come. In 1979, trade between the United States and China stood at roughly $5 billion -- today it tops over $400 billion each year. The commerce affects our people's lives in so many ways. America imports from China many of the computer parts we use, the clothes we wear; and we export to China machinery that helps power your industry. This trade could create even more jobs on both sides of the Pacific, while allowing our people to enjoy a better quality of life. And as demand becomes more balanced, it can lead to even broader prosperity."

Krugman deeply worried about trade imbalance: "...let’s hope that when the cameras aren’t rolling Mr. Obama and his hosts engage in some frank talk about currency policy ... Last week’s U.S. trade report showed a sharp increase in the trade deficit between August and September. And there will be many more reports along those lines. So picture this: month after month of headlines juxtaposing soaring U.S. trade deficits and Chinese trade surpluses with the suffering of unemployed American workers. If I were the Chinese government, I’d be really worried about that prospect ... [Yet] they’ve taken to lecturing the United States, telling us to raise interest rates and curb fiscal deficits — that is, to make our unemployment problem even worse."

Momentum For Intermediary Climate Agreement

American and Asian leaders formally agree to pursue intermediary climate agreement next month. W. Post: "...leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit endorsed the proposal by Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen for a limited, short-term climate agreement that would be finalized as a legally binding treaty in 2010. The new approach -- 'one agreement, two steps,' as Rasmussen called it -- would have all 192 countries participating in the talks sign an agreement on major parts of the negotiation, including mitigation, adaptation, technology and finance."

LA Times suggests new international strategy could improve prospects for US climate bill: "Scaled-back action in Copenhagen could help push a Senate bill over the top by securing pledges for emissions reductions from China and India, and thereby reassuring moderate Rust Belt Democrats ... It's still possible that negotiators might not agree on even a scaled-back declaration in Copenhagen -- and that could set treaty talks back considerably."

Climate Progress enthuses: "Now it will be obvious when the Senate takes up the bill up in the winter that the rest of the world is prepared to act — that every major country in the world has come to the table with serious targets and/or serious commitments to change their greenhouse gas emissions trajectories."

Politico reports tripartisan deal expected before Copenhagen: "Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) plan to release a framework for bipartisan legislation before the talks to send a signal that the United States is committed to taking action. But few senators expect Reid to actually put the bill on the Senate calendar."

Head of UN climate science plan lambastes delay. NYT quotes: "It signifies an abandonment of moral responsibility that a position of leadership on the world stage clearly implies."

Waiting on CBO

Bloomberg previews Senate floor debate: "...Reid has delayed unveiling his legislation while waiting for Congressional Budget Office cost estimates on various proposals ... 'Once we hear from CBO, we will take the legislation to the caucus and hope to start floor debate as soon as possible,' said Jim Manley, Reid’s spokesman ... Reid first must corral 60 votes to start debate. Later, he might do a test vote on the proposal with a public option before accepting [Sen. Olympia] Snowe’s plan to create a government program only if premiums aren’t affordable enough, [former Sen. John] Breaux said."

Chamber of Commerce looking to pay for "study" attacking health care reform. W. Post uncovers: "The e-mail, written by the Chamber's senior health policy manager and obtained by The Washington Post, proposes spending $50,000 to hire a 'respected economist' to study the impact of health-care legislation, which is expected to come to the Senate floor this week, would have on jobs and the economy. Step two, according to the e-mail, appears to assume the outcome of the economic review..."

Drugmakers jacking up prices in advance of legislation. NYT: "Even as drug makers promise to support Washington’s health care overhaul by shaving $8 billion a year off the nation’s drug costs after the legislation takes effect, the industry has been raising its prices at the fastest rate in years. In the last year, the industry has raised the wholesale prices of brand-name prescription drugs by about 9 percent, according to industry analysts. That will add more than $10 billion to the nation’s drug bill..."

Major pushback on interpretation of Center for Medicare and Medicaid report on House bill. Politico on WH response: "Nancy-Ann DeParle, director of the White House Office of Health Reform, pushed back Sunday on the CMS report that concluded Medicare beneficiaries could lose access to health care providers under the House bill ... 'It is an interesting analysis but it is pretty speculative though of what the impact will be on providers and beneficiaries. Our recent experience would indicate something quite different.'" Kevin Drum: "What CMS is saying is that the healthcare sector tends to be labor intensive, and thus won't be able to improve its efficiency as rapidly as the broader economy. Which might be true. Still, it's worth noting that this is basically a counsel of despair. It suggests that controlling the growth of healthcare spending is hopeless, and any attempt to try it won't work. ... I don't buy that ... we're going to have to control healthcare spending one way or another, and the sooner we give it a serious try the better." Walker Report: "CMS concludes that the public option would provide better quality health insurance at a better value." Wonk Room: "If the CMS analysis suggests that reform legislation should adopt robust cost-containment provisions, it also applauds the bill for expanding coverage by building and strengthening the current public/private system. The report is a wake-up call for reformers as much as it is a full and complete rejection of critics who argue that the House bill will undermine the existing health care system."

Financial Reform Fights Brew

Politico reviews points of conflict with Dodd financial reform bill: "Dodd has immediately picked a fight with his House counterpart, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), by proposing to strip the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. of its supervisory powers and give those powers to a new banking super-regulator ... [Bankers] continue to fight over who pays into a 'too big to fail' fund ... Community banks want the big banks to prepay into this emergency fund. The big banks prefer the approach taken by Dodd’s bill: the FDIC collecting money from big firms after the crisis has passed."

House working on too-big-to-fail reform. The Hill: "The House Financial Services Committee next week is set to debate the highly contentious issue of whether the government should have the power to break up large financial firms even if they’re not about to fail. Lobbyists for big banks are anxious about language still being drafted by Reps. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.) and Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.) that would give new powers to the government to break up big firms and separate their different types of commercial and investment banking business.

HuffPost's Art Levine previews today's Goldman Sachs protest: "EIU President Andy Stern is joining hundreds of progressives -- and potentially more -- in a newly organized protest outside the Washington, D.C. offices of Goldman Sachs on Monday at noon. SEIU is part of a co-sponsoring coalition, Americans For Financial Reform, that also includes other unions, such as the AFL-CIO, and the advocacy groups Public Citizen and National People's Action that are planning the march."

The Hill reports on possible Senate jobs bill: "A bill sponsored by Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) would give unemployment compensation to employees who accept a reduced work schedule to allow their companies to avert layoffs or to hire more employees. Reed's proposal for work-sharing was mentioned during the Senate Democrats' lunch Tuesday, when Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) announced that an initiative focusing on jobs would soon be a priority, Reed's office said ... Reid hasn't tipped his hand on what the coming legislation will include. Labor unions have called for more aid to states to help prevent cutbacks of public employees, loans for small businesses and more investment in infrastructure projects."

GM to start paying back US early reports NYT: "One reason was the 'cash for clunkers' program..."

Progressive Breakfast: Get Some Jobs

Bill Scher — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 06:53:16 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day

Announced Summit Renews Focus On Job Creation

LA Times reports on planned WH jobs summit and Senate jobs bills: "...Obama said he would gather chief executives, small-business owners, economists, labor leaders and others to discuss ways to create jobs and grow the economy. The move comes as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) told colleagues this week that he planned to push a job-creation bill in the coming weeks ... [Sen. Jack] Reed has been pushing legislation to expand work-share programs, which exist in California and 16 other states. The initiatives entice companies to cut workers' hours instead of laying them off ... Sen. Russell D. Feingold (D-Wis.) is drafting a bill to provide a job-creation tax credit, based on a proposal by the think tank Economic Policy Institute. Lawmakers from steel-producing states have pressed for accelerated passage of a new multiyear transportation bill to build highways and other projects."

Krugman says look to Germany for jobs ideas: "Germany came into the Great Recession with strong employment protection legislation. This has been supplemented with a 'short-time work scheme,' which provides subsidies to employers who reduce workers’ hours rather than laying them off. These measures didn’t prevent a nasty recession, but Germany got through the recession with remarkably few job losses."

Open Left promotes funding any jobs bill with TARP money: "[A jobs bill] could range in size from $100 to $200 billion, which is a wide range ... we can play a role in determining how big it becomes. Some members of Congress, including the leadership, are open to using TARP bailout money (still $317 billion of it left) as the primary funding mechanism. This would make the bill a huge political winner, as the bailout is directed away from Wall Street and toward Second Street." Open Left also criticizes plans to reduce deficit with TARP: "Don't repay Chinese bankers with the $210 billion. Give Americans jobs."

L. Randall Wray proposes a "Jobs Guarantee" program in New Deal 2.0: "The federal government would ensure a job offer to anyone ready and willing to work, at the established program compensation level (including wages and a healthy benefits package). To keep it simple, the program wage could be set at the current federal minimum wage ($7.25 an hour), and then adjusted periodically as that is raised ... A permanent and universal JG program should be decentralized, with projects created and administered locally–where the workers are, and for the benefit of their communities ... businesses would be protected from unfair competition because all JG projects would have to demonstrate they’d fulfill unmet public purposes. "

Deficit to be primary focus of Jan. State of the Union address. Politico: "President Barack Obama plans to announce in next year's State of the Union address that he wants to focus extensively on cutting the federal deficit in 2010 – and will downplay other new domestic spending beyond jobs programs..."

What's Reid's Health Care Tax Plan?

Reid's tax plan to finance health care reform still unknown. NYT: "James P. Manley, a spokesman for Mr. Reid, said the majority leader had not decided whether to include the [Medicare] payroll tax increase [on workers with incomes above $250K] in the bill he takes to the Senate floor. Several Democratic senators have urged Mr. Reid to propose extending the Medicare payroll tax to income other than wages, like capital gains, dividends and rental income. Such a change could generate substantial revenue from higher-income households, who tend to derive a greater share of their income from sources other than wages."

WH not backing specific tax plan, but retains optimism for passage. Bloomberg: "White House Budget Director Peter Orszag said he expects President Barack Obama to sign a bill to overhaul the U.S. health-care system this year, as lawmakers consider a new tax on capital gains to help fund it ... Orszag wouldn’t say whether the White House supports that approach. 'We have to see the package as a whole,' he said."

W. Post's David Broder vs. Ezra Klein on whether the House bill reduces long-term spending. (Guess which one actually talks to a health care expert.)

Consumer Watchdog calls out Dem opponents of reform for taking corporate cash: "Dems Who Voted "No" On Health Reform Received $568K From Health Insurers & $377K From Drug Companies In 2009"

Insurers pressing employees to oppose reform. W. Post: "UnitedHealth Group, which is based in Minnesota, sent an e-mail message to its 75,000 employees on Tuesday asking them to write their senators and local newspapers in opposition to a public insurance option, alleging that 'government-run health care' will force 'millions of Americans' to drop their current coverage."

AFL-CIO Prez pledges to renew EFCA fight after health care is passed in WSJ.

Senate Financial Reform Mark-Up Next Week

CQ reports on Dodd's schedule to pass financial reform: "The Senate Banking Committee will begin debate next week on a sweeping overhaul of financial industry regulations, though votes on the plan won’t begin until December. The markup will start Nov. 19, but for opening statements only, according to a committee memo. A revised version of the draft legislation, unveiled Tuesday by Chairman Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., will be released Nov. 16. Dodd set a Nov. 23 deadline for the submission of first-degree amendments, with consideration of those amendments set for Dec. 2."

McClatchy reports former Fed officials differ on Fed's proper reg role: "[Dodd's] approach differs greatly from the Obama administration's and the legislation going soon before the House of Representatives. Both would empower two bank regulatory agencies and give the Fed more power, not less. Which approach is right? There isn't consensus, even among former Fed governors. 'I am with Dodd on this one,' said Alice Rivlin ... 'The Fed has not distinguished itself as a regulator.' Rivlin said that bank regulation is too fragmented, which creates opportunities for banks to shop for the weakest regulator ... On the other side, Rivlin's former colleague Laurence Meyer ... called the Dodd legislation 'political posturing' by a 'hate the Fed crowd.' He warned that taking the most experienced regulators off the supervisory beat 'increases the risk of crisis going forward.'"

Fed restricting some, but not all, debit card overdraft fees. NYT: "Under the rules announced on Thursday, consumers must be given a notice that explains the debit card policies, including fees. Without permission from the consumer, the card issuer cannot charge for overdrafts at retail stores or A.T.M.’s ... Because the new rules do not cover many other types of transactions, they were criticized by consumer groups."

China Pushes For Looser Trade Rules

China pushes for more trade deals, less rules. Reuters: "In a speech to business and political leaders in Singapore, [China President] Hu made no mention of the Chinese yuan, a hot topic in global financial markets ... Arguing that protectionism stood in the way of a global economic recovery, he called for a push to conclude the Doha round of trade liberalisation talks, which have been stalled for eight years."

Mixed signals on currency policy shift. Reuters: "China's central bank said earlier this week that it will consider major currencies in guiding the yuan, suggesting a departure from the peg. The country then signed up at the end of a meeting of Asia Pacific finance ministers in Singapore on Thursday to a statement that promised 'monetary policies consistent with price stability in the context of market-oriented exchange rates'. However, Thailand's finance minister threw cold water on talk that all this could signal a policy change was on its way."

Hopes For Preliminary Climate Agreement in Copenhagen

W. Post reports WH seeking "short-term climate pact" at next month's UN meeting: "At the heart of the interim pact ... are 'political commitments' from key nations outlining their targets to reduce their own greenhouse gas emissions as well as the amount of money richer countries will spend to help developing nations adapt to global warming and curb their own emissions. Such an approach could provide the incentive for major developing economies such as China and India -- both of whose leaders Obama will meet this month -- to sign onto an international climate agreement, according to experts. Leaders of the European Union, U.S. environmental groups and developing nations have pushed for a binding [long-term] treaty ... But many accept that is no longer possible now that the Senate will not vote on a climate bill this year ... Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) said Tuesday that he is still trying to provide negotiators with 'a sign of political commitment on the part of the United States' by issuing a draft in the next few weeks of the climate bill he is writing with Sens. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) and Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.)."

Wonk Room's Brad Johnson criticizes 14 Senate Dems for pushing coal-friendly pollution permit system: "...a bloc of senators with powerful coal interests in their states called for 'fair emissions allowances in climate change legislation.' Their definition of “fair,” unfortunately, turns out to be full taxpayer subsidies for global warming polluters. They call for the free allocation of pollution permits to electric utilities to be distributed 'fully based on emissions' ... The signatories on the letter defending coal-heavy polluters are Senators Tom Harkin (D-IA), Al Franken (D-MN), Roland Burris (D-IL), Byron Dorgan (D-ND), Herb Kohl (D-WI), Russell Feingold (D-WI), Kent Conrad (D-ND), Michael Bennet (D-CO), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Mark Udall (D-CO), Robert Byrd (D-WV), Carl Levin (D-MI), Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH)."

Climate Progress notes further evidence that Europe's cap-and-trade system is working: "Europe made a major commitment under the Kyoto Protocol that U.S. conservatives have been telling us for years it would never achieve. In fact, the Europeans are poised to surpass their targets under the terms of the Protocol. It is no longer plausible for those who don’t want a U.S. cap-and-trade system to point to the European Trading System (ETS) as a failure. Quite the reverse ... [Further,] the EU-15 will not need to rely on offsets to meet their Kyoto target."

Leading free-trader and fair-trader write joint W. Post oped embracing carbon tariff in any carbon cap bill: "We agree that it is politically unrealistic -- and unwise -- to try to enact a cap-and-trade system that puts manufacturers in the United States at a competitive disadvantage with those operating overseas that do not produce under comparable requirements. It makes no sense to impose a cost on those producing steel, autos and other goods, only to have them shift jobs and pollution to China or India -- which are wary of binding international obligations on emission reductions."

Progressive Breakfast: Reid Not Done

Bill Scher — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:34:12 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day

Reid Not Finished Making Changes To Health Care Bill

Pushback against latest idea from Sen. Carper to bury public option. DailyKos' mcjoan: "A triggered co-op! A trigger that's never going to trigger to create a co-op that will never work. Seriously, this is their Plan B?" HCAN's Jason Rosenbaum: "state-based public options already exist, and they haven't been able to put much of a dent in private insurance:"

Sen. Reid considering payroll tax increase on wealthiest to help pay for reform. AP: "[Anonymous Democratic] said one of the options Reid has had under review would raise the payroll tax that goes to Medicare, but only on income above $250,000 a year. Current law sets the tax at 1.45 percent of income, an amount matched by employers. It was not known how large an increase Reid, D-Nev., was considering, or whether it would also apply to a company's portion of the tax. President Barack Obama has said he will not raise taxes on wage earners making less than $250,000."

Politico Pulse analyzes Reid's moves: "Reid has signaled a willingness to completely re-engineer the proposals as he tries to craft a skeleton key that can unlock 60 'yes' votes. In a nod to the liberals, Reid announced that he would include a public option that states could opt not to participate in – a provision not found in either the Health or Finance bills. Then, word came this week that Reid has authorized Sen. Tom Carper to work on a non-profit, trigger public option aimed at picking up moderate votes. And just yesterday, news leaked that Reid is considering a higher payroll tax on upper income earners – a move likely to be detested by moderates and embraced by liberals. It’s becoming increasingly clear that Reid is working in real time to piece together the 60-vote puzzle and when something doesn’t fit, he’s trying pieces cut fresh from the jigsaw. "

AP looks at influence of Catholic bishops group on health care reform: "They don't spend a dime on what is legally defined as lobbying, but lawmakers and insiders recognize that the bishops' voices matter — and they move votes."

Salon.com's Jeff Sharlet suggests evangelical group The Family plays bigger role: "Neither [Reps. Bart] Stupak nor [Joseph] Pitts is talking. Of course, if they just keep quiet, the press will pin it on the bishops -- who, to be fair, are more than happy to take credit. That version of events neglects the role of relationships forged within the evangelical context of the Family -- a group founded in the spirit of virulent anti-Catholicism, and which maintains to this day that being Catholic brings you no closer to Christ than being Jewish or a Muslim..."

Kanjorski Plan To Limit Bank Size Gains Traction

Wall Street nervous of Kanjorski plan to empower government to "dismantle any large firm whose size and risk-taking threaten the financial system." Bloomberg: "Seven Wall Street lobbyists trooped to Capitol Hill on Nov. 9, hoping to convince Representative Paul Kanjorski’s staff that his plan to dismantle large financial firms was a bad idea. They walked out with a sobering conclusion, according to the accounts of two attendees who requested anonymity because the meeting was private. Not only was Kanjorski serious, he planned to offer the legislation as early as next week -- and it just might pass."

Naked Capitalism unimpressed: "admittedly, the Kanjorski proposal would reinstitute Glass Steagall by splitting commercial banking operations from investment banking and thus lead to some pretty dramatic surgery at JP Morgan (hiving off Chase Manhattan), Citigroup, and Bank of America. But while that would affect the scope of operations (and thus the pay packages, since top level pay is correlated with asset size of the entity) of the highest ranks, it would have comparatively little impact at the business unit level. This is a 1930s remedy for 21st century banking. The Kanjorski proposal does remarkably little to reduce TBTF risk. The real problem is not size, and this approach puts the focus on completely the wrong issue ... The only viable solution to the misbranded TBTF problem is to require systemically important firms ... to exit all activities that are not socially essential and therefore deserving of government support..."

W. Post reports Fed seeking to fight political currents and retain broad autonomy: "Fed officials are working with Congress to explore ways to expand oversight without compromising their ability to make unpopular decisions."

Politico Morning Money flags op-ed from US, Singapore and Indoenesia finance ministers implicitly pressing China on currency: "Market-oriented exchange rates in line with economic fundamentals will be essential in assuring the resource and sectoral shifts to match and foster the new patterns of demand."

Fiscally Foolish "Centrists" Ignore Need For Continued Stimulus

State governments facing severe shortfalls and stress on services for several years, though stimulus has helped. Bloomberg: "U.S. states, which are closing $250 billion of budget deficits, will be forced to grapple with diminished revenue until at least 2012, a survey of fiscal officials found. The only thing that kept states from 'draconian' spending cuts has been $135 billion of funding under President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus package, according to a report from the National Governors Associations and the National Association of State Budget Officers. Revenue fell 7.5 percent in fiscal 2009, forcing states to close budget gaps of $72.7 billion. 'These are the worst numbers we’ve ever seen,' said Scott Pattison, executive director of the budget directors group, in a news release. 'States have been forced to lay off and furlough employees, raise taxes, drain rainy day funds and sharply cut state spending.'"

Right-leaning Senate Dems continue to push for special commission to circumvent procedure and prematurely cut deficit. McClatchy: "The drive on Capitol Hill to create a bipartisan commission to help control the cost of health spending and address mounting deficits picked up momentum Tuesday, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and a handful of moderate Democrats and Republicans voiced support ... McConnell said he'd have to see the composition and mandate of a commission before signing on ... The White House has signaled interest in the Conrad-Gregg commission approach, according to Conrad, but remains non-committal ... The idea of threatening to hold up a measure allowing the government to raise the nation's nearly $12 trillion debt limit to enable the Treasury Department to continue borrowing has attracted strong backing from Sens. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., 13 other Democrats and Lieberman."

WH considering directing TARP funds to deficit reducation. WSJ: "The administration wants to keep some of the unspent funds available for emergencies, but is considering setting aside a chunk for debt reduction, according to people familiar with the matter. It is also expected to lower the projected long-term cost of the program -- the amount it expects to lose -- to as little as $200 billion from $341 billion estimated in August. The idea is still a matter of debate within the administration and it is unclear how much impact it would have on the nation's mounting deficit levels ... the Obama economic team is especially concerned that rapid deficit reduction could hurt the economy."

Climate Update

Sen. Graham's potential support of carbon cap earns him "censure" from local GOP cmte. NYT: "The executive committee of the Charleston County Republican Party, in a voice vote on Monday, rebuked Mr. Graham 'for many of the positions he has taken that do not represent the wishes of the people of South Carolina, such as: passing a "cap and trade" energy bill, bailing out banks and granting amnesty for illegal aliens,' according to the censure resolution."

Change.org's Mike Smith praises Brazil for stepping up on cutting carbon: "Brazil's government pledges to reduce emissions by around 40 per cent of the projected emissions levels in 2020 emissions were no action were taken ... cutting emissions based on 2020 levels may miss the target to help reduce atmospheric levels of Co2. But Brazil [is still] doing much more than other nations..."

Ethopian PM will be tough negotiator at Copenhagen. Bloomberg: "Envoys for the Dec. 7-18 Copenhagen meeting were given a taste of [Meles Zenawi's] clout at climate talks in Barcelona last week when African delegates staged a one-day walkout to demand the developed world cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 40 percent. Meles has threatened a similar exodus at Copenhagen, which could derail an agreement as he’ll represent 52 of the 190 nations present when unanimity is always sought on global UN accords ... Meles demands industrialized countries such as the U.S. and Britain that released most of the historical emissions to compensate developing nations for climate damage they caused in recent decades. He also seeks subsidies to install clean-energy equipment. The cost to richer nations: $67 billion a year."

Shorter Media: CBO, What CBO?

Bill Scher — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:16:04 -0800

All summer, traditional media reporters hyperventilated at every preliminary Congressional Budget Office estimate of draft health care bills.

Yet after the House bill was deemed by the CBO to be a deficit cutter, as was the Senate Finance Committee bill that is the basis for Sen. Reid's forthcoming version, the media are responding by going out of their way to find excuses to say health care reform would still cost too much.

Yesterday, W, Post's Fred Hiatt decreed that the House bill "could take America a step closer to bankruptcy," waving off the CBO estimates because "the CBO is not allowed to count $250 billion in projected Medicare payments to doctors over the next 10 years" and " the CBO [is not] permitted to ask whether Congress will truly cut hundreds of billions of dollars from Medicare programs in coming years, as the House bill assumes." Hiatt's colleague, and actual health care expert, Ezra Klein was compelled to give a gentle rebuke:

He's talking about, first, a fix to Medicare reimbursement rates that really isn't part of health-care reform, and, second, the capacity of Congress to make hard decisions about, well, anything. Fair points both, but neither here nor there when it comes to the House legislation.

Today, the New York Times ran a news article with a misleading headline, "Democrats Raise Alarms Over Costs of Health Bills" -- uh, you mean the bill Democrats just passed? -- which complains that the House bill does not include "setting Medicare reimbursement rates for doctors and hospitals more rigorously and discouraging workers and employers from buying expensive health insurance policies that mask the true costs of treatment," and downplays the fact that the Senate Finance bill does include them.

(The latter proposal may be a cost saver, but there are other ways to cut costs without raising taxes on some middle-class households. However, regardless of my view, it's certainly on the congressional table, so it's misleading to complain that it's not in the bill.)

Somehow the public option wasn't even mentioned in the article. Dean Baker took to task a separate NYT piece for treating the public option as the product of base ideology and not a pragmatic way to reduce costs.

More notably, the White House's budget director was compelled to rebut the NYT on his blog, detailing all the cost containment strategies in both House and Senate versions:

Every two weeks or so, there seems to be a story ringing the alarm bells over the fiscal dimension of health reform.

As I've said time and again, the President is committed to signing a health reform bill that is deficit neutral in the first decade – and deficit reducing thereafter. The legislation under consideration in the Senate and the bill passed Saturday by the House both meet these tests.

But health reform effort must go beyond simply being deficit neutral over the first decade and deficit reducing thereafter; it must also begin the process of transforming the health care system so that it delivers better care, not just more care...

...The House and Senate versions of reform share a variety of measures that will help create this health care system of the future, which will help to contain health care cost growth while also providing Americans with higher quality care. In addition to historic investments in health information technology, research into what works and what doesn't, and prevention and wellness investments that were included in the Recovery Act, some of the key provisions under consideration in the health reform bills include:

* Changing the way we pay hospitals, to discourage mistakes and unnecessary readmissions.

* Creating incentives in the payment system to reward quality of care rather than just the quantity of procedures.

* Giving physicians incentives to collaborate in the coordination of patient care.

* Investing in research into what works and what doesn’t in health care.

* Reducing hospital-acquired infections and other avoidable health-center acquired conditions through rigorous reporting and transparency.

* Imposing a fee on insurance companies offering high-premium plans — which would create a strong incentive for more efficient plans that would help reduce the growth of premiums.

* Establishing a Medicare commission — which would develop and submit proposals to Congress aimed at extending the solvency of Medicare, slowing Medicare cost growth, and improving the quality of care delivered to Medicare beneficiaries.

Orszag then pointed to an open letter by prominent health care and budget experts proclaiming that the House bill, which does not include the specific provisions promoted by the NYT article, offered much cost saving potential:

[The bill t]akes initial steps to 'bend the cost curve' and thus might lead to even larger cost savings than official estimates suggest.

Surely, there are differences of opinion among experts about what cost containment strategies are the best. But these reporters appear to be continually moving the goalposts to adhere to a manufactured narrative that the health care bills would lead to reckless spending, to the point of severely downplaying factual information that would upset the narrative.

Not exactly the hallmark of objectivity and pragmatism.

Progressive Breakfast: Senate To Start Slow Health Care Debate

Bill Scher — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 06:41:59 -0800

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start their day

CBO Expected To Score Senate Bill Soon, Kickstart Debate

The Hill suggests Senate debate starts next week, passage by Christmas, final bill by State of the Union address: "The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is expected to finish its cost analysis of the Senate bill by the end of this week or early next. Senior aides and senators say Democrats plan to pivot quickly and file the first procedural vote as early as Monday ... a first, critical test of the caucus’s unity on procedural votes. Senators ... say the most realistic scenario is for a Senate vote by Christmas followed by final passage in mid-January. That would allow sufficient time for House-Senate conference talks and final House-Senate votes during January’s first weeks."

The Hill also finds "No" votes who are open to voting "Yes" on the final House-Senate bill: "Perriello’s and Nye’s votes should continue to be topics of conversation if the measure comes back to the House, as should Boccieri’s, Kosmas’s, Kissell’s and those of many other vulnerable Democrats."

President indicates to ABC Stupak amendment needs to be scaled back: "I laid out a very simple principle, which is this is a health care bill, not an abortion bill ... there needs to be some more work before we get to the point where we're not changing the status quo."

41 pro-choice House Dems levy threat. The Hill quotes: "We will not vote for a conference report that contains language that restricts women’s right to choose any further than current law"

HuffPost reports Sen. McCaskill shifting away from Stupak: "Less than a day after saying the Senate could live with a health care amendment that greatly restricted a woman's access to abortion in the private insurance market, Sen. Claire McCaskill, (D-MO) announced she opposed such an amendment."

Politico reports on other senators sympathetic to Stupak: "Other key moderates didn’t go quite [as far as Sen. Nelson], but at least two others — Sens. Kent Conrad of North Dakota and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana — said they, too, want to ensure that the Senate bill prevents federal dollars from paying for abortion."

GOP Sen. Susan Collins deems the Senate Finance compromise better than Stupak. Bloomberg: "...she believes the plan that came out of the Senate Finance Committee 'did a good job putting up a firewall that would prevent federal funds from going to abortions.' The committee’s bill prohibits abortion services from being required as part of a minimum benefits package offered through the exchange. It also segregates public subsidy funds from private premium payments for insurance plans that provide abortion services."

FDL's Jon Walker reports Sen. Ben Nelson embracing Stupak: "If Nelson gets his way (and when hasn’t Nelson gotten his way this year?), so much for 'don’t worry, Obama will fix it in conference.' ... If these groups are serious about protecting a woman’s right to choose, they better start looking into [budget] reconciliation."

NYT "news" article complains about lack of cost-cutting because House version does not tax expansive insurance plans. Dean Baker rebuts: "Why Is Using a Public Health Care Plan to Drive Down Health Care Costs Ideology and Not Pragmatism?"

President Clinton to address Senate Dems today. CNN: "Democratic leaders have consistently cited what they call a lesson of the Clinton administration: fail to pass health care, and congressional Democrats will suffer on Election Day."

Dodd Bill Takes A Shot At The Fed

Bloomberg gets a sneak peak at the Dodd bill to be released today: "Senator Christopher Dodd will propose creating a single U.S. regulator that would strip the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. of bank-supervision authority [and] would eliminate the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision and fold the Treasury Department units into the new bank regulator ... Dodd will also propose creating a Consumer Financial Protection Agency, a council of regulators to monitor large firms for disruptive effects on the industry and the economy, and giving the FDIC power to unwind failed firms whose collapse in bankruptcy could shake the economy."

Dodd doesn't have Shelby on board. Politico: "Shelby balked over some of the substance in Dodd’s bill — particularly Dodd’s determination to include the so-called consumer financial protection agency. But the main tension appears to be one of timing. Shelby and his staff felt there were serious weaknesses and unanswered questions in the proposal that they needed addressed before moving forward with compromise talk ... Dodd and his staff – no doubt feeling pressure from the White House – feel a greater sense of urgency, and they believe they’ve thoroughly explored the relevant issues in dozens of hearings and sit-downs with experts ... a partisan vote in committee doesn’t mean that’s the end of negotiations between Dodd and Shelby."

Wonk Room's Pat Garofalo questions Treasury opposition to a financial transaction tax: "...the tax could raise some deficit-reducing revenue, while giving us a more efficient financial system. That’s something that Geithner should be willing to spend a few moments contemplating."

NYT on the latest attacks on consumers by credit card companies: "Interest rates are going up, credit lines are being cut and a variety of new fees are being imposed on even the best cardholders ... lawmakers have accused them of trying to impose rate increases before many of the new rules take effect in February ... the House of Representatives voted last week to make the law effective immediately. The bill now goes to the Senate, where a vote has not been scheduled. The Senate Banking Committee chairman, Christopher J. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut, meanwhile, is pushing legislation that would freeze interest rates on existing credit card balances until the law takes effect."

Obama to press China on currency on his upcoming Asia trip. NYT: "Mr. Obama has so far resisted domestic pressure to brand China as a currency manipulator, which could anger a crucial U.S. creditor, and when asked about this in the interview he parried the question ... He did, however, say that the two countries share a common interest in delivering sustainable growth that will help rebalance the global economy ... [and] did acknowledge that the complaints about access to Chinese markets had some validity."

Right-leaning Senate Dems threaten to block debt limit increase without new commission to prematurely slash budget deficit outside of regular procedure. CQ: "Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad said he and 10 other senators have told Majority Leader Harry Reid that they will not vote for an increase in the debt limit without also having a vote on creating a special process to deal with ... long-term budget problems ... Conrad has pushed hard for creation of a commission of lawmakers and administration officials that would produce policy proposals that Congress would have to consider for curtailing the growth in government debt."

Baucus Pledges To Pass Climate Bill

CQ reports Sen. Max Baucus is promising to pass climate protection legislation before midterms: "'There’s no doubt that this Congress is going to pass climate change legislation,' said Baucus, whose committee kicks off hearings on the issue [today]. 'I don’t know if it will be this year, very likely next year. But I very much want climate change legislation. I think it’s very important for my state and for the country.' Baucus’ pledge to press for legislation addressing global warming is especially important because his panel has jurisdiction over particularly contentious parts of any cap-and-trade bill, including the formula for distributing billions of dollars in emissions allowances to polluters."

HuffPost on Baucus' links to special interests: "The Sunlight Foundation's Paul Blumenthal traces Sen. Max Baucus' special interest ties to climate legislation -- 12 of his former staffers, including four former chiefs of staff, now lobby for organizations with a vested interest in the policy.

EPA & WH keep raising pressure on Congress, moving towards EPA regulation of carbon. WSJ: "... the Obama administration appears one step closer to creating its own regime for controlling greenhouse gases. On Monday, the Environmental Protection Agency announced it sent the White House Office of Management and Budget its proposed finding that greenhouse gases endanger human health and welfare. Adoption of that endangerment finding is the legal precursor to regulating such gases under the Clean Air Act.

Climate Progress on new Pew polls in swing states: "Polling from 3 key states — and 5 key districts — finds strong support for the climate and clean energy bill ... 75% of voters in Michigan favor. 68% of voters in Ohio favor. 67% of voters in Missouri favor ... You can find details on the 8 polls here."

Politico reports veterans groups are increasingly supportive of climate legislation on national security grounds: "...scores of retired admirals and generals are lending their stars to the boards of energy security organizations in ways that could expand the political base for new climate change policies ... Citing what many see as weather-related calamities that are striking with increasing fury, possibly because of climate change, [CAP's Rudy] DeLeon said that the military services 'see the displacement that is occurring when these disasters hit' because of their role in aiding the world’s most important humanitarian missions."

NYT reports on friction between EPA heads and two EPA lawyers critical of cap-and-trade approach: "The Environmental Protection Agency has directed two of its lawyers to makes changes to a YouTube video they posted that is critical of the Obama administration’s climate change policy. The agency, citing federal policies, told the two lawyers, Laurie Williams and Allan Zabel ... that they could mention their E.P.A. affiliation only once; must remove language specifying Mr. Zabel’s expertise and their years of employment with the agency; and must remove an image of the agency’s office in San Francisco."

Grist's David Roberts critical of both parties: "even though I think many of Williams & Zabel’s policy arguments are deeply flawed, I can’t see any justification for refusing them the right to communicate honestly about their backgrounds to the public. EPA should back off."