A Litmus Test For '08?

You know those folks who made up Bush's base during the last election? (And we're talking about his real base—the millions of middle Americans who voted on conservative values—not the small group of big-money donors he called his base.) Well, it's only six months into Bush's second term, and it turns out the values those folks voted for aren't the ones they're seeing in action. A new poll shows these base voters are not happy with the president's ideas about protecting seniors citizens, kids and disabled people—and provides a chance to make some inferences about who they will and won't support next time around.

The poll, conducted by Americans United To Protect Social Security and Peter Hart Research Associates, found that rural voters who went for Bush over Kerry, 57 percent to 37 percent last November, now overwhelmingly oppose Bush's Social Security plan. Rural voters—whose communities depend on Social Security more than non-rural areas—are against Bush's plan for changing Social Security, 53 percent to 39 percent. And they disapprove of the way he's handled the Social Security question, 52 to 31 percent. A full 71 percent of rural voters want Congress to come up with another plan for Social Security, while only 16 percent want Congress to pass the Bush plan. More than three-fourths of the respondents said that Social Security was in line with their own moral values.

But perhaps the most interesting information the survey reveals is that members of a whole slew of demographic groups that supported Bush overwhelmingly in 2004—we're talking white religious fundamentalists, retirees, Southerners, white married women—indicated that they're less likely to vote for a candidate in future elections who supported the Bush Social Security plan. Frist in 2008? Maybe not.

Views expressed on this page are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Campaign for America's Future or Institute for America's Future