Progressive Breakfast: BREAKING NEWS -- The CBO Score Is In

Each morning, Bill Scher and Terrance Heath serve up what progressives need to affect change on the kitchen-table issues families face: jobs, health care, green energy, financial reform, affordable education and retirement security.

Health Care Bill Cuts Deficit $1.2 Trillion Says CBO

Big cuts in deficit found by CBO should smooth passage. The Hill: "The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) told lawmakers that the health bill would cut the deficit by $130 billion over the next decade, and $1.2 trillion in the second decade of the plan's implementation ... The release of the CBO score sets into motion a 72-hour endgame on healthcare that could mean a vote in the House on the package as early as Sunday morning."

TNR's Jonathan Cohn explains why the CBO process has been drawn out, Dems are "guilty of practicing good government": "CBO must certify that the changes [in reconciliation] will reduce the deficit ... I mean reduce the deficit relative to whatever the Senate health care reform bill would do on its own. And that is no small thing. The Senate bill, as written, was projected to save quite a bit of money .. we have President Obama and the Democrats confronting truly difficult trade-offs, in order to convince skeptical government accountants that health care reform will reduce government spending by even more than the accounts predicted it would already."

Rep. Rob Andrews says final delays are "more technical than substantive" reports The Hill. “'It’s not like what tax has to go or what spending has to go.' Andrews did say, though, that the CBO is also taking extra time to protect the legislation from invariable legal challenges to the reconciliation process, if not the eventual law itself."

CQ speculates plan to scale back excise tax putting pressure to other savings "'I would bet that it had a pretty significant effect,' said John Holohan, director of health policy research at the Urban Institute. 'As soon as that came out, I was wondering how they would make up all that money.'"

HuffPost reports AFL-CIO's Richard Trumka in last-minute negotiations concerning excise tax on high-premium plans: "Under the president's plan, those families with health care plans over $27,500 and individuals with plans over $10,200 would be taxed starting in 2018. That tax would be indexed to the Consumer Price Index plus one percent, which would provide some additional comfort to those with high-end policies ... The plan, however, got tripped up after congressional negotiators received poorer-than-expected feedback from the Congressional Budget Office, a senior Democratic hill aide confirmed. And as a compromise, on Wednesday, they began discussing indexing the tax simply to the Consumer Price Index."

"Trumka was to brief members of the AFL-CIO's executive council on Thursday," reports AP, "and the federation was expected to announce whether it would support the legislation.

Politico reviews GOP obstruction strategy in the Senate: "Their goal is to force changes that leave Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) without 51 votes to pass it, or at the very least, that drive it back to the House for a second vote that drags out the process and saps Democratic resolve ... Democrats aren’t quaking at the prospect of the Republican offensive. Senate Democratic aides spent the weekend with the Senate parliamentarian, scrubbing the legislative language ..."

At least two Senate Dems may enable GOP to obstruct during reconciliation. CQ: "Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin , D-Ill., reaffirmed that Democrats will move to block what they consider an excessive number of Republican amendments by seeking a ruling from the presiding officer — in consultation with Senate parliamentarian Alan Frumin — to limit votes once an unspecified number is held ... Durbin’s stance has unsettled moderate Democrat Ben Nelson of Nebraska, who said he would likely oppose any move to cut off amendments ... Mark Begich, D-Alaska, also expressed qualms about cutting off amendments."

GOP candidates plan to run on "repeal," reports W. Post, "even though both parties acknowledge repeal would be highly unlikely as long as Obama remains in office."

At The Guardian, Tim Fernholz says that Republicans are in denial over the political impact of health care reform: "First, the healthcare reforms will become more popular ... Just as important, enthusiasm among Democratic voters is waning, a key warning of potential defeat. But passing a major progressive priority that has languished for decades would give the Democrats' base plenty of reason to show up on election day."

Public option architect Jacob Hacker urges passage of compromise bill in Politico oped: "..I still support passing this bill. The fight for a public option should continue with renewed passion the day the legislation passes. Once the bill is signed, 160 million people with employer coverage will no longer be at risk of losing health benefits when they lose or change jobs, and 31 million Americans who would otherwise be uninsured will gain coverage. The bill also makes coverage far more affordable for families with modest incomes..."

The Nation has 30 million reasons to pass health care reform: "What about the legislation itself — what does it accomplish? On a concrete level, it expands health insurance to as many as 30 million Americans who are currently not covered; on a symbolic one, it makes clear that the government — not the market — is responsible for healthcare. Those are no small achievements."

Scott Lemieux at Lawyers, Guns & Money says the Kucinich vote is principled: "With something like health care reform ... the relevant question is whether, according to one’s principles, the legislation under consideration improves the status quo or not ... if that’s case, voting yes is perfectly principled, even if you would make much more radical changes if you had the power."

Campaign for America's Future's Roger Hickey and Daily Kos' Markos Moulitsas praise Kucinich for backing reform on MSNBC's Countdown. Hickey: "Dennis Kucinich did what the country needed him to do."

Kucinich to return donations from FireDogLake activists who gave based on uncompromising position on public option. Jane Hamsher: "It’s the honorable thing to do. While he shouldn’t be expected to carry the weight of the health care bill on his back when the other 64 members of Congress have abandoned him, it is both disheartening and illuminating to realize that the progressives in Congress have no true commitment to anything but putting on a show."

Former congresswoman Marjorie Margolies, who famously lost re-election after supporting Clinton's deficit reduction package, counsels wavering Dems on health care in W. Post oped: "You will be assailed no matter how you vote this week ... So cast the vote that you won't regret in 18 years ... being able to point to something tangible that changed our country for the better was a more powerful motivator than the possible electoral repercussions."

59,000 nuns say Rep. Bart Stupak is wrong on health care reform and abortion funding, back bill, reports MSNBC's Rachel Maddow. Stupak's response? "When I'm drafting right-to-life language, I don't call up the nuns." Just the bishops.

Everyone can relax now. Daily Kos McJoan reports that Rep. Eric Cantor now says "Deem and Pass" is legit: "Not that this will keep Republicans from screeching about the 'Slaughter Solution' being unconstitutional (no matter how many times they've voted for bills using it), but this morning Eric Cantor was forced to admit that the process is legitimate."

President notes whatever procedure is used means a vote for or against reform. Roll Call: "During an interview on Fox News Channel’s “Special Report,” Obama said the strategy being considered by House Democratic leaders ... is the equivalent of voting on a bill. He also criticized the media’s focus on process and not on the substance of the legislation."

"[Fox News'] Bret Baier ... spent about 80% of the health care section of the interview asking Obama about process" notes Swampland's Kate Pickert.

Insurance companies are targeting Reuters' Murray Waas reports on insurance companies targeting HIV patients with "automatic" fraud investigations: "Previously undisclosed records from Mitchell's case reveal that Fortis had a company policy of targeting policyholders with HIV. A computer program and algorithm targeted every policyholder recently diagnosed with HIV for an automatic fraud investigation, as the company searched for any pretext to revoke their policy." ProPublica follows up: "...it's not just this one insurance company that has been engaging in aggressive rescission. In California, state regulators fined five major health insurance providers ... for dropping more than 6,000 sick policyholders."

Adding student loan reform to reconciliation will "Inject More Than $100 Billion Of Income Into The Economy" reports Wonk Room's Ulrich Boser.

Mother Jones' Stephanie Mencimer suggests some Tea Parties may end up liking the health care bill: "[Tea Party activist] Dale Chiusano ... walked up to me and started complaining that his health insurance company had kicked his 22-year-old daughter off the family plan during her senior year of college. Like so many tea partiers I've interviewed over the past year, Chiusano was already the beneficiary of government health care ... but he was outraged to discover that he had to 'pay through your nose' to get his daughter a private plan during the gap between college and her first job I pointed out that the health care overhaul would have saved him a lot of money by allowing his daughter to stay on the family plan until she was 26, a fact he hadn't known."

Tana Ganeva has the latest picture of the face of the Tea Party movement — screaming at an elderly man with Parkinson's disease: "A video shows the man sitting down in front of a group of protesters. 'If you're looking for a handout, you’re in the wrong part of town! Nothing for free here ...'" (Video at Crooks and Liars.)

Jobs Tax Credit Becomes Law Today. What's Next?

President to sign jobs tax credit bill today after bipartisan vote. LAT: "The measure would exempt employers from their 6.2% Social Security payroll contribution for every new employee hired through 2010, if that person had been out of work for at least 60 days. There would also be an additional $1,000 corporate income tax credit for every new employee kept for 52 weeks. Experts are divided over whether the payroll provision will boost hiring."

CQ on future jobs strategy: "... Reid has promised to bring a 'small-business jobs package' to the floor. That bill is still being developed ... the House on Wednesday also passed by voice vote another short-term extension of expanded unemployment benefits ... which would allow lawmakers to continue working on a longer-term extension package..."

Treas. Sec. Geithner and Rep. Rosa DeLauro spar over structure of an infrastructure bank. Streetsblog: "The [WH-proposed $4B] I-Fund is often likened to a National Infrastructure Bank (NIB) but differs from congressional efforts on that topic in one major respect -- the White House would house its fund within U.S. DOT rather than make it an independent entity. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), the lead House sponsor of NIB legislation, has previously resisted the lack of independence for the White House I-Fund ... when pressing needs exist in the areas of 'water systems, energy, environment, broadband and telecommunications.'"

FT's Arvind Subramanian argues that the China currency issue must be addressed internationally: "Branding China a currency manipulator would be explosive. Beijing would not take kindly to being chastised formally. It is likely to respond in kind, and it is safe to assume that changing its currency policy will not be part of that response ... The key is to recognise that the renminbi is a problem not just for the US but the world and, as such, requires a multilateral rules-based solution rather than a bilateral confrontation between Washington and Beijing."

Financial crisis leads Detroit to propose shuttering 45 schools reports NYT.

Bernanke Wants It All

Bernanke pleas to keep all bank oversight in congressional testimony. LAT: "Stripping the Fed of a major part of that regulatory role, he said, would deprive it of important information about the state of the financial system and the economy that is necessary to set monetary policy ... Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, now an economic advisor to President Obama, backed Bernanke ... But the Fed is not popular on Capitol Hill right now."

W. Post Ezra Klein argues Wall Street is actually happy with Dodd bill: "My sense is there's plenty in the bill Goldman Sachs will lobby to change, if for no other reason than Goldman's lobbyists need to show what they're doing to deserve their massive paychecks. But there's nothing in there that Wall Street can't live with."

Wonk Room's Pat Garofalo assess what lawmakers need to protect from bank lobbyists "No federal preemption of state law ... Better corporate governance ... No carve-outs ..."

"Dodd's Proposal Creates A Cumbersome Bureaucracy" says OurFuture.org's Richard Eskow: "...there's no more talk of breaking up the big banks or subjecting them to the supervision of a 'super regulator.' Instead, oversight for them is given to a 'Financial Stability Oversight Council' with nine members ... Instead of dismantling these threats to the world financial system, they'll be watched ... by a committee."

Curious Capitalist disturbed that Angelides commission including right-wing boogeyman Community Reinvestment Act as possible factor in financial crisis: "...at the FCIC's second set of hearings, not one but three professors are asked about the CRA as a cause of the financial crisis ... All three say that CRA was not a factor ... [Yet Angelides] said his panel is still looking into it ... Blaming everyone is good fodder for magazine articles, but it doesn't work as the basis of regulation."

Economist's View's Mark Thoma deems it "discouraging" that Angelides can't cross CRA off the list: "Perhaps the final report will dismiss the CRA explanation, but when asked, why not rule it out now? [Otherwise, it] encourages those who are pushing this explanation because it accords with their ideological bias against government."

New Draft From Tripartisan Climate Trio

CQ on the latest proposal from Sens. Kerry, Lieberman and Graham: "An economywide cap on carbon emissions that would begin in 2012, with a target of reducing carbon pollution 17 percent by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050; Separate caps on carbon emissions by the electric utilities and manufacturing sectors, which would have to buy pollution permits from the federal government; A straight fee or tax, paid by consumers at the pump, on transportation fuels. The levy would be linked to the carbon content of the fuel and the price of carbon in the other markets ... Direct rebates to consumers of half the revenue from the sale of pollution permits ... Application of a “carbon tariff"..."

CQ sums up the reaction: "The outline, circulated to about a dozen industry heads, provided more concrete details about the plan than had previously been disclosed, but far less than industry and lawmakers say they need to see before committing their support."

Previously adversarial lobbyists intrigued, noncommittal. Greenwire: "'Directionally speaking, the way they're trying to conform and shape this bill I'd suggest is largely in sync with what most people in American industry think is the direction you're going to have to go if you're going to have a successful program,' said Bruce Josten, executive vice president for government affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. 'Now there's a lot of ifs, ands and buts, but if you're asking for a broad statement, that's a broad statement.'"

Climate Progress critical of the carbon price "collar": "The floor price, however, is just too low. I’d want to start at least $12 if not higher.

Treehugger's John Laumer argues that a carbon cap with prevent green jobs from going overseas: "Post Cap & Trade, added operating costs from high coal consumption will provide a long-term incentive for manufacturers to move good paying jobs to 'green power' states ... with strong nuclear and hydroelectric power capacities, or which can add to them ... with wind and solar as backup."

China already getting top green job workers from US. NYT: "[Mark] Pinto is the first chief technology officer of a major American tech company to move to China ... President Obama has often spoken about creating clean-energy jobs in the United States. But China has shown the political will to do so, said Mr. Pinto, 49, who is also Applied Materials’ executive vice president for solar systems and flat-panel displays."

More concessions to industry possible. The Hill: "The senators are also planning to add sweeteners -- such as major financial support for new nuclear power plants and 'clean coal' projects, as well as wider offshore drilling -- to attract support from industry and centrist Democrats and Republicans. "

"Group of 29 governors seeks renewable-power standard" reports LAT.

Murkowski complains about autoworker opposition to her anti-EPA bill: "[She] said that auto industry opposition to her plan to block EPA climate change regulations stems from pressure by Democratic leaders."

Social Security's Enemy Alan Simpson Kissed By NYT

NYT gives fluff coverage to debt commission co-chair Alan Simpson positioning him as "centrist" and ignoring his repeated attacks on Social Security.

Dean Baker charges Simpson with poor understanding of economics: "The article quotes him as saying: 'when Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security suck up the entire revenue stream, we will be going to China and others to finance two wars, and that means borrowing it.' ... [But the] reason that the United States borrows money from China is due to the over-valuation of the dollar ... not the budget deficit."

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