Progressive Breakfast: Will Baucus Bill Pass?

The daily Progressive Breakfast serves up what progressive movement members need to know to start the day.

Uncertainty Precedes Senate Finance Cmte Vote

Dem holdouts on Senate Finance make final vote uncertain. W. Post: "...Sens. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and John D. Rockefeller IV (D-W.Va.) remained undecided Sunday. If all 10 Republicans on the panel vote no, two Democratic defections would be enough to send Baucus and the Obama White House scrambling to regroup." EARLIER: OurFuture.org: Cantwell pledges to vote against bill without public option. -- The Treatment: Snowe pledges to vote against bill without full CBO score completed.

The Hill suggests Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid will keep the public option in what he sends to floor: "'We are going to have a public option before this bill goes to the president's desk,' Reid said in a conference call with constituents on Thursday, as reported by the Las Vegas Sun. 'I believe the public option is so vitally important to create a level playing field and prevent the insurance companies from taking advantage of us.' On the same day, Harkin gave The Des Moines Register the same message, suggesting clearly that he will side with Reid against Baucus." Time suggests differently: "'Reid's not tipping his hand,' says one of his aides."

LA Times reports WH is lobbying congressional moderates for "some version" of public option: "the Obama White House has launched a behind-the-scenes campaign to get divided Senate Democrats to take up some version of the idea for a final vote in the coming weeks ... When Obama spoke by phone with Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) last week, he made a point of the breadth of support for the public option, she said in an interview. Cantwell authored a proposal to let states set up public plans, which Democrats added to the Senate Finance Committee bill ... But Obama and Reid are treading carefully, wary of including a provision that would scare off moderates such as Snowe, Nelson and Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), who have all indicated they would not support a national public plan. Besides Snowe's trigger approach and Cantwell's proposal, an alternative is being considered from Sen. Thomas R. Carper (D-Del.) that would also give states flexibility to set up their own public plans."

Time's Karen Tumulty lays out the other remaining unresolved issues to be argued on House and Senate floors: "Whether the bill should include a requirement that individuals who do not get coverage from their employers or from government programs buy it on the open market. If so, how can lawmakers ensure that people who are required to buy coverage can actually afford it? Should it include a requirement that all but the smallest firms provide a package of health benefits to their workers, and if so, how would it be enforced? How should the proposal be financed, and should it include a tax hike on the wealthy or a tax on high-end insurance plans? There will also be renewed debate over some of the side issues that have arisen, such as coverage of abortion and whether illegal immigrants might find ways of entering the system."

Politico Pulse reports: "At 11:10 a.m. the president holds a Rose Garden event with doctors from across the country, and will deliver remarks on the need for health insurance reform this year."

Biz Support For Climate Action Rocks Biz Lobby

Politico reports biz coalitions launching big push for climate bill: "Two coalitions of top U.S. corporations are using Washington visits and more than $1 million in advertising to prod the Senate and White House to accelerate work on an energy and climate bill ... they will argue they need certainty to plan for the future ... these executives contend that many businesses, and the overall economy, would eventually benefit from the new law ... more than 150 business leaders from utilities, manufacturers and clean-energy companies plan to 'swarm' Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday. The fly-in is being organized by We Can Lead, an umbrella business organization ... Separately, on Tuesday, 28 companies and labor and green groups — including United Technologies, Johnson & Johnson, GE, Weyerhauser, the Nature Conservancy and the Environmental Defense Action Fund — are launching a seven-figure advertising campaign 'in support of comprehensive clean energy and climate change legislation.'"

WSJ: "The flurry of companies quitting the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is highlighting how the climate-change issue is straining traditional alliances in Washington, as some businesses seek to profit from overhauling the energy market and others try to cut deals to head off tougher regulation."

W. Post suggests softer international treaty is possible: "[US rejection of the Kyoto agreement] has made the United States more cautious about defining specific reductions, made other industrialized nations skeptical of the U.S. commitment and made developing countries more insistent on getting money from rich nations to address their problems ... U.S. negotiators, as well as ones like India's Ramesh, are exploring whether the world's major emitters could forge a pact that encompasses nationally binding goals and is subject -- at least to some extent -- to international review."

Bailout Watchdogging

Tough IG report on TARP, reports NYT: "A Treasury official made incorrect statements about the health of the nation’s biggest banks even as the government was doling out billions of dollars in aid, according to a report on the Troubled Asset Relief Program to be released on Monday by the special inspector general, Neil M. Barofksy. The report also provides new insight into the way the Treasury allocated billions of dollars to nine of Wall Street’s largest players. The report says that Bank of America appeared to qualify for more aid earlier, under the government plan. That assertion adds another element of intrigue to continuing investigations of the bank’s merger with Merrill Lynch and the role that regulators played in the deal, even as Merrill’s condition deteriorated."

McClatchy reports federal government working with dubious mortgage companies: "Several firms now participating in the Treasury's program to modify troubled mortgages have run into problems with federal or state regulators for their treatment of their customers over the years."

Toxic assets plan may actually get off ground. NYT: "The Public-Private Investment Program would acquire only a tiny fraction of those assets, amounting to $12 billion. All told, the Treasury said, the five firms have thus far raised $3.07 billion in private equity. The Treasury will match that amount, dollar for dollar, with its own equity investment. It will also provide up to $6.13 billion in financing guaranteed by the government. In effect, the money-management firms will be able to buy about $12 billion in troubled assets. The firms will split any profits evenly with the Treasury, but taxpayers would ultimately be on the hook if the investments lost money."

Significant Second Stimulus Seen As Unlikely

Politico reports bipartisan dismissal of second stimulus: "Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) , John Cornyn (R-Texas), Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) in appearances on Sunday shows all rejected or brushed aside suggestions of another stimulus, with Greenspan and Cornyn questioning whether Obama’s first stimulus was proving effective ... Greenspan, Schumer and Cornyn ... expressed support for extending unemployment benefits, which the House of Representatives moved to do last week, passing legislation Friday that would provide 13 more weeks of benefits to states with unemployment rates of 8.5 percent or higher."

HuffPost's Robert Kuttner warns of higher unemployment without stronger action: "I had a conversation with a senior administration economic official last week and I asked him to suspend disbelief and consider a large increase in public spending to create more jobs. What would he spend the money on? We discussed the pro's and con's of emergency fiscal aid to the states versus a tax credit for job creation in the private sector, subsidized job-sharing, and direct public works employment. But it was clear that the administration considers a Stimulus II a non-starter. The view is shared by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who testified last week that there was not much we could do about rising unemployment except wait it out. This is economically deplorable and politically self-defeating."

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